Nasrallah dead, what happens now?

Shiite, supported by Iran, “creature” of the Islamic Republic, Hezbollah was born in the early 1980s, in the midst of the civil war in Lebanon (1975-90). The first poster dates back to 1985. From 1992 and until the last hours, the Party of God – allied ministers in the Beirut government and deputies in Parliament – was led by Hasan Nasrallah. The Israeli military announced his killing in a raid in Beirut and hours later his death was confirmed by Hezbollah. “Nasrallah will no longer be able to terrorize the world,” the Israeli forces (IDF) wrote in a post on escalation which is the worst since the devastating 33-day war in 2006.

Hezbollah, which has transformed from a faction to an armed force with significant influence over the Lebanese state, is the only group to have retained its weapons since the civil war. It has close ties to Hamas, which was responsible for the October 7 attack last year in Israel and against which Israel has been carrying out a military campaign in the Gaza Strip since that day.

On October 8, Hezbollah intervened with cross-border attacks against Israeli territory in “solidarity” with Hamas. Hostilities that continued for months until the escalation in the last few days, starting when on September 17th hundreds of pagers belonging to members or affiliates of the group exploded. The Party of God, which Israel claims to have ‘beheaded’, is also an ally of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, who in turn is a close military and political ally of Tehranand Hezbollah militiamen were deployed in the Arab country to support troops loyal to Assad in the war against the mostly Sunni rebels, which exploded in 2011 in the wake of anti-government protests.

The fate of the Party of God: “The jihad continues”. Iran’s rescue

But what will happen now? What will be the fate of the Party of God and who can it count on? Meanwhile, according to what was reported by the Israeli media, in addition to the death of the leader and the killing of several ‘big names’ and commanders, the raids in recent days in Lebanon have significantly dented Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal and halved the number of missiles with precision attack capabilities, while the number of rockets with a range of up to 40 kilometers would be reduced to a quarter. In Lebanon, in addition to the cost in terms of human lives, a war still risks costing Hezbollah dearly, as well as the Lebanesewith the risk of losing political influence in the Land of Cedars. “Hezbollah’s leadership is committed to continuing the jihad against the enemyin support of Gaza and Palestine and in defense of Lebanon”, assures the allied Shiite organization in the note in which it confirmed the death of its leader.

Meanwhile, while the country and the organization gather their strength and decide what to do post-Nasrallah, Iran comes to the aid of the organization – at least in words. An exponent of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Mohammad Hassan Akhtari, has in fact announced that in the next few days Tehran will begin registering for the sending of troops to Lebanon and the Syrian side of the Golan Heights. “We can send troops to Lebanon to fight against Israel, just like we did in 1981,” Akhtari, head of the Committee for Iran’s Support for the Palestinian People, affiliated with the Iranian presidential office, told NBC.

And with the announcement also comes the warning of Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khameneiaccording to which “Zionist criminals should know that they are too small to cause significant damage to Hezbollah’s strong structure in Lebanon” and “the fate of this region will be decided by the resistance forces, led by Hezbollah.”

According to the ayatollah, who never made explicit references to Nasrallah’s death in his statement, “with the grace of God, Lebanon will make the evil aggressor repent of his action”. Khamenei concluded by highlighting that “It is obligatory for all Muslims to proudly stand alongside the Lebanese people and Hezbollah with their resources and help him face the usurping, cruel and evil regime.”

What remains of Hezbollah’s arsenal, the estimates

Up to 50 thousand fighters. In addition to the ‘reservists’. Up to 150 thousand rockets and missiles. These are the estimates on the arsenal and strength of the Lebanese Hezbollah, relaunched by the Washington Post. Hezbollah’s rockets are capable of hitting as far as Tel Aviv, but the group has so far seemed to prefer the path of ‘caution’, remarks Orna Mizrahi of the Institute for National Security Studies, convinced however that “we are only at the beginning of something again”.

Hezbollah can count on missiles with a range of up to 500 kilometers (the Scuds)CNN underlines: it has an arsenal of ammunition of various ranges made up of 120-200 thousand rockets and missiles (from Katyusha rockets to Scud missiles), in addition to drones, almost all of which are supplied by Iran. Among these, the Shahed-129 have a range of action which in theory can reach 2 thousand km, but which in reality, depending on the command of a ground station, is much more limited (expert estimates vary from less than 200 km to 400). Similar to the American Predators, they can be used for reconnaissance and attack missions.

Leader Hassan Nasrallah had spoken at the beginning of the year of a force of over 100 thousand militiamen and ‘reservists’, although military analysts believe that Hezbollah has between 30 thousand and 50 thousand fighters.

Hezbollah, writes the Post, per Tel Aviv it is a “larger, more strategic and better armed enemy” and there are fears about the “resources and energy” available to Israel to face another large-scale offensive. Hezbollah’s arsenal is indeed more “sophisticated” and “destructive” than Hamas’s. However, Israeli military and intelligence superiority remains. According to CNN, the Party of God has lost at least 500 fighters since October, including leaders such as Fouad Shukr and Ibrahim Aqil, the latter killed in another raid that beheaded the leadership.