Ukraine needs its G7 loan – the EU needs to show creativity

Ukraine is facing a difficult third winter of war.

Russia has succeeded in destroying the vast majority of the country’s key energy infrastructure.

International Energy Agency IAE’s recent report says that Ukraine has only one third of its pre-war energy production capacity left.

The pressure on the country’s electricity system will be enormous in the coming winter, the organization warns.

EU High Representative for External Relations Joseph Borrell stated last week In connection with the UN General Assembly, that Ukraine must be supported not only militarily, but also by providing the country with electricity production capacity.

What will happen to the promise of the G7 countries?

Ukraine also has headwinds on the financial front. The 50 billion dollar loan promised to Ukraine by the G7 countries in the summer has yet to be given.

The EU and the United States have not reached an agreement on how big a pot each will borrow and under what conditions.

The proceeds from the frozen assets of the Russian Central Bank are to be used to repay the G7 loan. The assets are mainly located in Europe.

In the United States, there is concern about the sustainability of the EU’s sanctions policy. In the country’s opinion, the EU has not given sufficient guarantees that Russian assets will remain frozen in the future.

Sanctions on frozen funds are only valid for six months at a time. Continuation requires the unanimous approval of all EU countries. There are risks associated with this, as Hungary has often tried to block EU support for Ukraine.

Behind the scenes, EU diplomats are currently thinking about ways to extend the validity of the sanctions with a qualified majority decision.

Hungary has been of the opinion that the decision on granting a loan of 50 billion dollars should be postponed in general until after the presidential elections in the United States in November.

Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán seems to be counting on him becoming president of the USA again Donald Trumpand Western aid to Ukraine is waning.

Hungary should be boycotted

Hungary is currently the rotating EU presidency. Viktor Orbán unexpectedly visited Ukraine, Russia and China on a “peace mission” right at the beginning of his presidency.

Finland’s EU Ministerial Committee outlined in August that Finland will not participate in the informal ministerial meetings organized in Hungary at the political level for the time being.

This means that ministers or political state secretaries do not participate in the meetings, but officials representing Finland in them.

However, it is still open whether Finland boycotted the informal EU summit in Budapest in November.

That would be the Prime Minister From Petteri Orpo (kok) a decent bet.