Irish people go to the polls today

Irish people go to the polls on Friday after an election campaign marked by the housing crisis. The most likely outcome of the election is the return to power of the government of the center-right parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, but the race is increasingly close and Sinn Fein, which wants to unite Ireland, also has a chance for power.

Independent candidates, experts say, could greatly influence the outcome of the election.

The elections are premature considering that the regular ones were supposed to be held in the spring of next year.

Voters in Ireland last went to the polls in February 2020, when Fianna Fail won the most seats. The party founded a coalition with the ruling parties Fine Gael and the Green Party. Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, by coalition agreement, alternate in the position of Prime Minister (Irish: taoiseach).

The current government is led by Fine Gael’s Simon Harris, 38, who took over the party and government in April and earned the nickname “TikTok taoiseach” for his media skills. Although the party was only third in the elections, thanks to him, it managed to increase its support in the spring European and local elections.

When the elections were called, this pro-business and socially progressive party was leading in the polls with about 25 percent support, but after a series of public failures in the campaign in recent days, it fell by about six percentage points, according to one public opinion poll. This was contributed, among other things, by the recording of Harris’s conversation with a voiceover in which he gave the impression that he was insensitive and arrogant.

Fianna Fail, the party led by Foreign Secretary Michael Martin and polling around 21 percent of the vote, is also fighting for the votes of centrist voters.

Most of the post-election projections point to the continuation of the coalition cooperation between these two parties, which have alternated at the head of the government since the declaration of Irish independence in 1921.

After decades of drifting away from its roots in the Irish Republican Army (IRA), left-wing Sinn Fein is also set to enter government in what would be its first time. The party received relatively the largest number of votes in the elections four years ago, and this time the polls predict about 20 percent of the votes.

Support for the largest opposition party has decreased after a series of scandals and internal disputes, and an overly working-class voter base has turned its back on it because of the party’s leadership’s progressive views on social issues and migration policy, according to AFP- in.

However, Sinn Fein remains committed to its long-standing goal of unifying Ireland with British Northern Ireland. Party president Mary Lou McDonald promised to hold a referendum on the issue if she came to power and also called on the British side to prepare for it.

This possibility is allowed by the 1998 peace agreement that ended three decades of bloodshed due to British rule over the northern part of the island, but on the condition that there is majority support for unification. It is indeed growing in Northern Ireland, but it is still below 50 percent. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail also support the unification of Ireland.

Migration and housing crisis

According to the BBC, migration is for the first time one of the most important issues for voters in the run-up to this election, and growing opposition to immigration has caused several violent riots in recent years. Tensions are growing due to the large increase in the number of asylum seekers, which is fueling more the burning debate about the lack of affordable housing units.

Real estate prices reach astronomical amounts, and this affects young people the most. According to data from Eurostat, the statistical office of the EU, 50 percent of household income in Ireland goes to housing costs. S

rents have increased by 68 percent between 2010 and 2021, and the capital Dublin is among the most expensive in the EU. The average monthly rent in the country currently exceeds 1,900 euros.

In order to collect as much support as possible, despite to the displeasure of many citizens over the high cost of housing and child care, Harris called the election shortly after adopting a generous budget that foresees billions of euros in tax breaks and increased spending.

Ireland is one of the few European countries with budget surpluses, which are mainly contributed by large incomes from corporate taxes from several American multinational companies based in that country. Among them are technological and pharmaceutical giants such as Apple, Google, Meta and Pfizer.

According to Politico, the campaign was also characterized by concern for the future of the Irish economic model, which depends on the taxation of American companies and direct foreign investments.

Many eyes are on the USA, where newly elected President Donald Trump wants to bring big corporations back to their homeland. Among other things, it is said that he is ready to reduce income taxes, and he is also announcing customs duties on imported products.

Independent candidates

A large number of independent candidates could play an important role in gathering a future parliamentary majority, especially if Fine Gael and Fianna Fail fail to win a majority because those two parties have ruled out cooperation with Sinn Fein.

Independent candidates come from across the political spectrum, including many vocal opponents of immigration. Independent candidates are expected to get around 20 percent of the vote.

3.5 million bira out of 5.4 million inhabitants have the right to vote. Counting of votes will start the next day, when partial results are expected. However, due to the proportional electoral system, the final results will not be known for a few days because the votes of the eliminated candidates will be redistributed among the remaining candidates in several rounds.

The number of representative seats in the new parliament will increase from the current 160 to 174 in order to keep up with population growth.