Carafano: “China is the real challenge, the USA will not leave Europe and will not hand over Ukraine to Putin”

This is the message that emerged from the meeting organized by the National Alliance Foundation with James Jay Carafano, senior counselor of the Heritage Foundation and one of the most listened to exponents of the American conservative universe close to the Trump administration.

The event, introduced by the vice-president of the AN Antonio Giordano Foundation and the scientific director Francesco Giubilei, brought together political leaders, analysts and journalists for a discussion on transatlantic relations, the war in Ukraine, China and the future of the West.

“More American commitment in Europe than during Biden”

After the intervention of Ambassador Giulio Terzi di Sant’Agata, president of the European Affairs Commission of the Senate, Carafano forcefully rejected the narrative of an American disengagement from the European continent.

“We have seen more American involvement in Europe in the last six months than we have seen in the four years of the Biden administration,” he argued, citing energy investments, digital deals and progress on the trade front.

According to the Heritage Foundation analyst, the most frequent mistake is judging Donald Trump by statements and not by concrete results.

“The American strategy exists and is very clear,” he explained. On the one hand there is a pragmatic approach, based on results and not on ideological affinities. On the other, the desire to build a network of “like-minded” countries and governments, united by similar priorities on security, energy, immigration and China, to strengthen the Western front.

The response to Adnkronos: “China remains the main threat”

Adnkronos, present at the meeting, asked Carafano a question on the evolution of relations between Washington and Beijing, in light of the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing, and in view of the three possible meetings between now and the end of the year (Washington, Apec Summit, G20 in Miami),

How should the signs of détente on the technological and commercial front be interpreted?

For Carafano it is a question of tactics but not strategic change.

“Donald Trump is probably the most anti-China American leader in decades.” The current president’s belief, he explained, is that China represents “the primary existential threat to the freedom, security, and prosperity of the United States.”

“We are not witnessing a new G2 or even a division of the world between the United States and China,” he observed. “The American strategy is to win the global competition with Beijing.”

According to Carafano, the White House wants to prevail in all the major sectors that will define the 21st century: artificial intelligence, quantum technologies and space. At the same time, Washington is increasing defense spending and working to eliminate strategic dependencies on China, from rare earths to critical infrastructure.

Indeed, he added, today European vulnerability would be even greater than that of America.

“The Chinese threat is probably stronger in Europe than in the United States,” he said, explaining that Beijing tends to exploit the continent’s weaknesses through industrial dumping, strategic acquisitions and technological penetration.

Ukraine: “Trump will not force Kiev to give in”

Another central theme was the conflict in Ukraine.

Carafano argued that Kiev is in a stronger position today than at any time since the war began, both militarily and diplomatically. He recalled that the official American line remains that of supporting “a Ukraine that is free, independent and capable of defending itself.”

The analyst acknowledged that Trump initially hoped he could get a deal more quickly because of the personal relationship he built with Putin during his first term. However, he explained, today’s Russian leader is very different from the one known by the White House in previous years.

For this reason, the American president does not intend to impose concessions on the Ukrainians that could compromise their future. “The idea that Trump can force Kiev to accept sacrifices to make Putin happy is simply not going to happen,” he said. The judgment on the future of relations between Russia and the West is even clearer. “I don’t think today’s Russia will ever be a partner of the West. It will not be trusted and we will not have normalized relations,” he said.

“Never out of NATO”

Among the questions addressed to Carafano were also those on NATO and the relationship with the European allies. The American expert dismissed as unfounded the recurring hypotheses of the United States leaving the Atlantic Alliance. “There is no plan to leave NATO,” and he recalled that he had closely followed the preparation of Trump’s second term.

The reason, according to Carafano, is simple: Europe continues to represent a vital strategic interest for Washington. “Why should the United States let the Russians and Chinese do what they want in Europe? They wouldn’t benefit from it,” he noted. Hence also the reference to Italy, defined as a partner destined to remain central in relations with Washington.

Italy-USA, a relationship destined to strengthen

Carafano said he was “absolutely confident” in the future of relations between Rome and Washington. According to the analyst, the government led by Giorgia Meloni falls within both the pragmatic dimension of American politics and the construction of a coalition of Western countries with converging priorities.

However, he also invited Italy to be more proactive, pointing to countries such as Japan, Croatia and Greece as examples, which in recent months have presented concrete initiatives to Washington capable of accelerating economic and strategic cooperation.

Giordano and Giubilei: “Transatlantic relationship stronger than people say”

During the meeting Antonio Giordano underlined how the debate served to overcome “noise and simplifications” that often characterize the narrative of relations between Europe and the United States. Francesco Giubilei instead recalled the common vision that binds the Italian and American conservative worlds on the issues of freedom, security and defense of the West. A relationship which, in the words of the promoters of the initiative, remains one of the pillars for tackling the great geopolitical challenges of the coming years.