Israel has changed its attitude and in the Middle East, they have “gone mad”

For nearly a year, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah echoed the policy of uniting the arenas, promising that “only a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip will lead to a cease-fire in Lebanon.” And here, by force of arms, Israel succeeded in bringing the terrorist organization to hold, at the very least, contacts that prove beyond any doubt: What was is not what will be.

Explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies, according to foreign publications, the elimination of most of the military leaders of the organization and the disclosure of a flagship plan to turn Shiite homes into missile depots, testified to the depth of the intelligence knowledge that Israel has accumulated in Lebanon. Yahya Sinwar, of course, wanted an escalation in Lebanon – in the absence of significant military capabilities against Israel. However, he did not take into account that the colossal failure against Hamas resulted, among other things, from the security establishment’s targeting of Hezbollah. This week, Israel managed to show the entire Middle East that “Israel has gone mad.” Without getting into political opinions, the facts show that in our region they understand power. The senior officials of Jerusalem, by the way, indulged in defense instead of concentrating on attack and initiative, as in Operation Kadesh and the Six Day War.

The State of Israel is rightfully proud of its air defense system, one that the countries of the world envy. But protection in the Middle East is paracetamol that relieves symptoms. And here, wonder and wonder, a few days of Israeli crushing in Lebanon, at the very least changed the discourse of the unification of the arenas of Hezbollah. From a situation of “there is nothing to talk about”, you see that there is something to talk about. and why? The initiative passed from Hezbollah, which was counting its dead and casualties at a high rate, to Israel. The terrorist organization does not know from which electronic means the next blow may come.

An opportunity that won’t come back?

Sinwar wanted escalation, but it turned into a double-edged sword that might leave him alone. At the same time, Nasrallah takes blows and is afraid to return. Hezbollah launched a missile at Tel Aviv, although it can launch dozens or more in a single volley. Nasrallah is not interested in breaking the rules, because he fears a knock-out for the Lebanese state in general and Hezbollah in particular, from which it will be difficult to recover. Therefore, it is possible that precisely now – in front of Israel is an opportunity that will not return to crush Hezbollah.

On the other hand, what is at stake, according to the USA and France, is an opportunity to achieve a long-term political solution. The only solution worth giving up the opportunity for Israel to crush Hezbollah is the implementation of Resolution 1701, which will push Nasrallah’s men beyond the Litani. The final, strategic and essential, of removing the Hamas regime from Gaza – it was condemned.

During the impressive tactical management of the fighting in the north, Israel needs to take a broad perspective on what is happening in the region. The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq are launching drones, as dangerous as they may be, but those that will not decide the war. These and their patrons in Iraq will not hesitate to participate in a regional-wide war. And why? According to a report in the “Wall Street Journal” from a few days ago, the strategic target Their plan for the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq is expected to materialize in 2026. A regional war with American involvement is expected to prevent or at least delay this.

Iran is out of the event

The most important question is what is wanted in Tehran. The answer to this is to move forward with the nuclear program. For a whole year, the war served them by diverting the world’s attention: after the nuclear agreement allowed them to enrich uranium limited to 3.67%, today Iran possesses 164.7 kg of uranium enriched to 60%. According to the IAEA, Tehran lacks Only 2 kg to reach a theoretical amount, which if enriched more, would be enough for four nuclear bombs.

However, in the last few months, a series of events happened in Tehran that had nothing to do with Israel: the ultra-conservative president Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash, and the reformist president Masoud Pazkhian was elected in his place. So while no step in Iran is made without the Supreme Leader’s approval, a government with different views still has influence.

As part of Pazkhian’s policy of getting closer to the West in order to ease the burden of sanctions on the citizens of Iran, he chose as his deputy Javad Zarif, who gained worldwide fame as the foreign minister who brought about the nuclear agreement in 2015. “Hezbollah are capable of defending themselves,” Zarif said this week in an interview with CNN in American English, which he adopted during his master’s degree and doctorate at the University of Denver.

This was a worldwide Iranian message: to the West – we are open to talks; And to Hezbollah – we are out of the event, at least for now. In Tehran, they understand that a multi-arena war will not serve their current interests, both because of the contacts that may lead to a renewed nuclear agreement and the easing of sanctions and when the US elections are around the corner. If such a war breaks out in the near future, they may find themselves without an agreement and with Donald Trump, Again, as president.