Georgia | Will the country vote for the West or Putin?

Before the war in Ukraine, it was another post-Soviet country that was at the center of the conflict between Russia and the West: Georgia. The small country in the South Caucasus with a population of 3.7 million inhabitants and a gross domestic product of around 25 billion US dollars became sovereign with the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991 and has been trying to break away from Moscow’s dominance since the early 2000s.

In 2003, in a democratic, non-violent uprising against the corrupt government of former Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze, which was closely linked to Moscow, the opposition led by the young lawyer Mikheil Saakashvili came to power.

Saakashvili wanted a radical modernization: He wanted to lead the country into the EU and NATO in order to establish a constitutional state, a democracy and a market economy and to get it out of Moscow’s orbit. At the same time, he was determined to reunite with Georgia the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which were supported by Moscow and had been breakaway since the 1990s.

All of this earned him the bitter hostility of the Russian president. Putin seized the first opportunity to punish him for his Western orientation. Ostensibly to protect the population of South Ossetia, he allowed Russian troops to invade Georgia in August 2008 and, urged on by Europeans and Americans, stopped just short of the Georgian capital Tbilisi.

What Putin achieved with this was the permanent separation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which moved even closer to Moscow and where Moscow from then on stationed troops as an extension of its territory. At the same time, it saw this as a kind of bargaining chip against Georgia’s development into a truly sovereign, prosperous state based on the Western model.

Enter Ivanishvili

However, Putin did not succeed in turning Georgia away from the West. Saakashvili remained in office until his party lost parliamentary elections in October 2012. The new leading figure was Bidzina Ivanishvili, who comes from Georgia but became a billionaire in Moscow in the 1990s and 2000s.

Since 2012, Ivanishvili and his Georgian Dream party have dominated the political stage in Tbilisi. Ivanishvili’s former associate Giorgi Gacharia recently stated that Ivanishvili still “handles all kinds of affairs, at the strategic and tactical levels” in Georgian politics, even though he keeps officially withdrawing from politics.

Ivanishvili was seen by his opponents as an extension of Putin. In fact, he always pursued a course of rapprochement with Russia. But the scope to move in this direction was also limited.

The billionaire had to at least appear to follow the democratic rules of the game, and that also meant not deviating too far from the will of the majority in order for his party to be re-elected. In concrete terms, this meant that despite all of Ivanishvili’s geopolitical rapprochement with Russia, he had to take into account the fact that, firstly, the 2008 war had left wounds – the loss of Georgian territory had not yet gotten over – and, secondly, that there was an overwhelming majority in the country, as polls repeatedly show show who is in favor of rapprochement with the EU and NATO.

Ivanishvili now apparently wants to end the state of limbo between the West and Russia in favor of the connection with Russia. The concern is that the parliamentary elections in October could be the last free and fair elections in Georgia, and that Ivanishvili could then use his power apparatus and with the support of Moscow to transform Georgia into an authoritarian state that is largely subordinate to Russian interests.

On the way to dictatorship?

The political battle in Georgia has been raging for months. A recently pushed-through new law requiring non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to register as “foreign agents” if they receive more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad has been attacked by the opposition as a step toward Russian-style dictatorship.

The law was passed despite protests and the veto of President Salome Zurabishvili. The organizations are a central pillar of the political public in the country, which hardly has any established democratic traditions.

Ivanishvili repeatedly shocks the pro-Western circles in Tbilisi with Russia-friendly statements. In April he complained that a “global war party that has decisive influence on NATO and the EU and that sees Georgia and Ukraine as cannon fodder” had artificially brought about the conflict with Russia. First, “they” forced Georgia into confrontation with Russia in 2008, then in 2014 and 2022 they brought “Ukraine into an even more difficult situation”. One of the instruments with which the “global war party” operates is the NGOs – “the main instrument with which the Georgian leadership can be influenced from abroad”.

Ivanishvili recently declared that South Ossetia, which is de facto occupied by Russia, deserves an apology for the 2008 war, prompting demonstrators to march in front of parliament chanting “No to the Kremlin’s dictates.”

Another former prime minister for the Georgian Dream party, Giorgi Margvelashvili, recently said that in the past, despite all political differences, there was a pro-Western consensus. But that is now changing: “For the first time, the government is changing the country’s geopolitical orientation.” This is a “tremendous victory for Russia”.

Western interventions

The US is trying to increase pressure on Ivanishvili by threatening sanctions. American officials have said Washington is preparing sanctions against Ivanishvili because he wants to steer the country away from democracy and hand it over to Russia. There is information that Ivanishvili opened access to the Georgian market to Russian oligarchs and that he came into contact with the Russian secret services.

Washington has already imposed visa sanctions on leading members of the Georgian Dream and suspended $95 million in aid.

In his April speech, Ivanishvili announced that after an election victory, Saakashvili’s party would be punished “for all the crimes against the Georgian people.” At the same time, he promised that Georgia would join the EU in 2030.

For weeks, representatives from various European countries have been trying to make it clear to Georgian voters that both cannot be had together. According to the embassy, ​​Georgia will have to decide in the parliamentary elections on October 26th whether it wants to bring the Georgian Dream party, dominated by Ivanishvili, back to power or move closer to the EU.

A lot depends on the elections. However, it is unlikely that Georgia will turn into an autocracy dependent on Russia overnight. For two decades, Georgia has had an active civil society that would not allow its political rights to be taken away without resistance.

The struggle between different forces is likely to continue even if the Georgian Dream wins the election. But if Ivanishvili follows up his announcements with action, the conflict could become far more brutal than before – with an uncertain outcome.

What happens next in Georgia also depends on how the war in Ukraine goes. If Russia triumphs against Ukraine, Ivanishvili’s narrative will become even more attractive: that opposing Russia’s will is life-threatening; that Russia will remain the central actor in the region to which Georgia must subordinate itself. However, if Russia loses, Russia’s attractiveness as a geopolitical anchor point is likely to decline, even for the Ivanishvili camp.