What began as a “revolution” in German polls, as reports of a “market” and “shock” in the Christian Democratic Union Party, has in recent days become the new reality: the Social Democrats are increasingly establishing the advantage they have in the public, according to opinion polls Weeks. Results of the latest poll: 25% for the Social Democrats (SPD), 20% for the Conservatives (CSU.CDU), 16% for the Greens, 13% for the Liberals (FDP), 12% for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and 7% for the “Link” (left).
3 weeks before the German elections, a poll from this morning confirms the Social Democrats’ advantage over the Conservatives, who are declining to 20%. “What will happen if Asht really loses?”, The “Spiegel” wonders; “Is it still possible to arrest Olaf Schultz?” Asks the “child.” Schultz, for his part, is already planning the day after and tells Tagagspiegel: “Interested in a coalition with the Greens” pic.twitter.com/auPfzI0s4O
– Assaf Oni, Berlin (@AssafUni) September 5, 2021
According to media coverage, the drift just continued. The media focuses on trouble within the Conservative Party, friction between its candidate for chancellor Armin Lasht and campaign managers, his almost.desperate attempt to prevent historic discrimination and “fight the wind” precisely when he heads the party accustomed to accepting the keys to the Chancellor’s Office. On the other hand, the media is quite devoted to the success story of the Social Democratic candidate Olaf Schultz, emphasizing the similarities between him and Merkel, even though the two are from rival parties, and already examining the future coalitions that the Social Democratic candidate could form.
Pulling out the mothballs of the “Red Socks” campaign
Lasht and the CDU launched two different campaigns last week. One included retrieving from the mothballs of the party’s ‘red socks’ campaign from the 1990s. So, the CDU campaign warned that under the Social Democrats Germany would “step forward” wearing “red socks” under shoes. That is: with the support of the party that replaced the Communist ruling party that ruled East Germany. That party (PDS) has become part of the left.wing Di Linke party, whose partnership in the Schultz.led coalition is now warning of the CDU’s new campaign.
Angela Merkel and Armin Lasht / Photo: Reuters, THILO SCHMUELGEN
This time, however, there is no time for footwear metaphors. “Schultz wants to be Chancellor with the support of the Communists,” said party secretary Paul Czimiak. She said that “there is an abysmal difference” between her and Schultz, but reserved and clarified that the essence of the difference is the formation of a left.wing coalition with the “Link”. “I would not share them with the government,” she said.
In this context, it must be said that the outgoing Chancellor could have done much more for her party. Schultz bases his campaign on being Merkel’s “follower”, stylistically but also politically. If Merkel had made it clear to the public in various statements that she did not consider him one, whose finance minister for the past four years was not fit to lead Germany and presented ideological disagreements – she might have led to a turning point. Had the Chancellor taken advantage of her popularity to criticize Schultz, and not just support Lasht, the CDU might have had a chance to change the trend.
Merkel does not. This is not her style. Only in recent days have various factors begun to pressure her to intervene. “This is nonsense that the chancellor can not interfere in the election,” wrote a columnist in Tagagspiegel today (Monday), “after all – this is her party.” “How can she look stoically at how her own party is fighting defeat? Why is she waiting?” Added.
The particularly embarrassing moment of Lasht
The second part of the conservative anti.loss campaign this week was to introduce the “Team of the Future” – seven party officials and one professor – who are supposed to support Lasht and assure voters that other politicians will be involved in the new government, not just the unpopular candidate. Among them was also the one who ran against Lasht, the one who promised to return the party to the right after the years of Merkel, Friedrich March. It was a particularly embarrassing moment for Asht, whose associates have mocked in the past for March’s desire to take on a post in the next government after losing the April general election. In the end, they were forced to beg him to show support, at least outwardly, in the blush.
These two moves so far have not been reflected in a change in poll results, but it may happen. About 30% of voters said they had not yet decided who to vote for, and it is possible that focusing on the plight of the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, will lead to a late “Guild” campaign that could save the party. The question is whether there is enough time for change and what will happen in the next 20 days in terms of the agenda.
Schultz, for his part, is already beginning to plan for the day after. In a comprehensive interview with Tagagspiegel, he made it clear that he was interested in forming a coalition with the Greens, and that he had worked with the party successfully in the past, including in the coalition in which he served as head of state.Hamburg. According to current polls, he will be forced to add another party to the coalition, and since the Linka do not appear to be possible partners (in part because of their foreign policy calling for NATO to resign), the only small party left is the Liberals. , Said that “it would be surprising if we get a relevant offer from Schultz”, but did not definitively rule out the possibility.
And there is another possibility, which the newspapers are beginning to discuss seriously: back to Merkel’s wider government, along with the “Greens” this time, however, it will be the Social Democrats who will lead it, and the conservatives in the role of junior partners. It will be very difficult for the CDU party to dance for their honor and enter such a coalition, however the party that is used to ruling may be much more afraid of the opposition benches.
The Germans have different names for the various coalitions, according to the colors of the parties. The “traffic light” coalition (red.green.yellow), for example, is that of the Social Democrats with the Greens and Liberals, which seems to be possible according to the latest polls. The coalition that the Conservatives aspired to form before the deterioration in the polls – theirs together with the “Greens” – is for some reason called “Kiwi” (black.green). A coalition in which the Conservatives lead along with the Social Democrats and the Greens is called “Kenya” after the color scheme in the flag of the African country.
But what is the name of the coalition in which the Social Democrats lead and are partners in both the CDU / CSU and the Greens? A coalition in which the order of colors is red.black.green? The political editors are opening the atlases these days and are looking for the appropriate flag, or a proper nickname for it. In the meantime do not find. It might be possible to offer them the name “Watermelon Coalition.“