The Croatian economist calculated when Serbia will overtake Croatia in terms of GDP

“Serbia has about three million more inhabitants than Croatia, and according to that criterion, it should have had a higher GDP than Croatia a long time ago,” said Sonje on the occasion of the recent assessment of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić that “political attacks from Croatia are coming because the Serbian economy will soon overtake Croatia, despite the Adriatic coast and tourism “.

In a text published on the Ekonomski lab portal, Šonje writes that “a measure of a country’s development is real GDP per capita, so nominally adjusted for the difference in prices – according to purchasing power parity – and for the difference in the number of inhabitants”.

“Croatia is at about 64 percent of the average level of EU development, the Czech Republic is at about 94 percent, Slovenia is at about 90 percent. Serbia is at about 43 percent. So, Croatia is almost 50 percent more developed than Serbia, but Slovenia is about 40 percent more developed than Croatia “, he wrote. Šonje pointed out that within 10 years, relations can change” if a country catches an extraordinary growth rate, as Estonia, for example, has managed “.

“If Serbia’s real GDP per capita grew two percentage points faster than Croatia’s on average per year, which is very difficult, Croatia would still be about 23 percent more developed than Serbia. If such a difference in growth rate continued for a very long time, Serbia would catch up with Croatia in about two decades, ie around 2040 “, added Šonje. In a blog entitled Serbia, Croatia and GDP, Šonje finally assessed that it is” very good for Croatia ” trading partners develop as fast as possible, because then they import more Croatian products and services, and Croatia imports more of theirs, so everyone’s life is better, and the chance for conflicts is less and less “.

“Development competition can be a good collective motive, so it is very good that Serbia follows Croatia with one eye, and Croatia follows Serbia, but one should know how to interpret the data correctly,” concluded the Croatian economic analyst.

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