Mexicans will find a way to avoid collection, anticipates BBVA

Mexicans living in the United States and could be affected if the government of that country applies a 5 percent tax to the sending of remittances They will find the way of turning it and send money without commissions, said Carlos Serrano, an economist in Chief of BBVA.

In an interview, Serrano explained that from a universe of 45 million people of origin or with Mexican roots living in the neighboring country, only 4 million or practically one in 10 would be harmed in the event that the Government of Donald Trump severely remittances.

The Media and Arbitration Committee of the United States Representatives Chamber on Wednesday approved a bill that seeks to apply the tax.

“As the proposal is, he says that US citizens will not be charged and yes to residents, but they will be returned when they make their statement. In general terms, this means that whoever is documented will not generate costs.

Who sends remittances to Mexico? In the United States there are 12 million people born here who live that country, of which 8 million are documented. Then, in principle those does not affect them. Nor are those who are second and third generations, because by definition they are citizenssaid Serrano.

The BBVA economist said that in the event that the United States Government approves the measure “Mexicans who could be affected will not stop sending remittances. Today the shipping cost is $ 10 on average. The average roughness, to round numbers, are 400 dollars per month, more imposed: let’s add another 20.

Some may continue sending, although they will be more expensive. But those who want to avoid that payment will have other channels, for example, ask a relative or a friend to do it; The other is a bank transfer or look for another option, such as cryptoactivehe detailed.

After pointing out that the measure It will not be very efficient to limit the number of resources that are sentthe economist clarified that in the event that the growth rate of remittances this year is less than in 2024 that will be the result of the deceleration of the economy in the neighboring country.

He said that remittances do not have a great weight on the gross domestic product (GDP). In turn, the remitting companies – which are dedicated to sending and receiving resources – could have an impact on the number of monthly operations, but not on their financial statements.

The measure will punish the poorest

The Banamex economic studies area considered that the proposal to apply a tax to remittances sent from the United States, which advances in the Congress of that country It has an important political component that affects the most vulnerablehe raised.

The measure, the, will have a limited effect on the flow of remittances to Mexico and, therefore, on consumption and growth.

According to Banamex, the collection of income for the imposition of the tax on remittances abroad seems limited and would not cover the proposals announced for border care.

“A group of workers (without citizenship) would be imposing a tax obligation, while advancing the ideas to reduce their access to medical safety.

This would be negative for that country in terms of public and unfair health with these workers, since they do pay local taxes, in addition to the economic contributions made to the United StatesBanamex said.

The base scenario is that the tax translates into a decrease in sending remittances with respect to the stage without taxes up to 0.1 percent of the gross domestic productBanamex mentioned.

In a special note, the study area added that Guerrero, Chiapas, Oaxaca and Michoacán would be the federative entities most affected by a lower flow of remittances, because in these entities those resources They constitute an important complement to household income.