– We expect “to recover the pre.crisis level of GDP in the second quarter of 2022. So a quarter earlier than we expected. “This was stated by the Minister of Economy and Finance, Daniele Franco, during a hearing in the joint Senate and House Budget Committees on the Nadef.
“In April we expected a 4.5% growth in GDP, now an increase of 6%, therefore an increase of one and a half points. This is a very significant change: all forecasters are seeing growth estimates up Italian economy “adds the minister, adding that” the third quarter seems to have gone very well “and” an estimated + 2.2% “.
“The debt.to.GDP ratio this year will be 2 percentage points lower than in 2020 it is positive for relations with international markets“says Franco. It can be said, adds Franco, that” that the peak was reached last year and now the downhill path has begun. “
The risks of the resumption of the pandemic
“The picture” that has been drawn in the Nadef “is the most probable and realistic, but a resumption of the pandemic would put these numbers in part at risk” adds the Minister of Economy. “We assume that there are no new restrictions on economic activity and the movement of people – he says – but if the pandemic resumes these numbers would be put at risk, this must be clear”.
How much does the increase in energy costs weigh
The increase in energy costs “is an issue that must be monitored and it is necessary to evaluate whether to do something at national and European level to mitigate this dynamic,” he says “Italian families have accumulated enormous liquidity: more than 200 billion. It can be a they fly above all for investments “.
Revision of the tax burden
Between 2022.2024 there are margins to intervene “to start a process of easing the tax burden”, we expect “a very rapid recovery this year and next: the real test is the growth we will have in the following years. long stagnation of the economy. Employment rates are lower than our partners “.
“Our exports are doing very well, there has been a very positive dynamic and this has led us to strengthen the surplus compared to other countries, which remains significantly above 3%”.