From an anomalous crisis to an anomalous recovery held back by an anomalous shortage: there is demand, supply is lacking. And this shortage affects both GDP and inflation. This is the analysis of the economists Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi su Firstonline.
“The recovery – they write – is crippled by its own strength. In the rapid rise from the Mariana Trench of the deepest recession in times of peace, demand has risen so suddenly, and has been recomposed to such an extent, that supply shortages have been created. such as to prevent the demand itself from translating into actual purchases.
Production is hampered not by a lack of orders, which in any case continue to rise, but by the absence of vital components, although sometimes they have an infinitesimal cost compared to that of the final good in which they are incorporated. This is the case with a microchip compared to the price of a luxury car. The anomalous bestiary of this crisis sees the problems of the cycle arise from supply and not from demand. Which remains and will remain strong “.
According to the two economists, “the pandemic crisis has reshuffled sectoral dynamics: services have been affected more than manufacturing and transport goods more than household goods. And when the recovery began, supply and demand struggled to meet. . Also because the supply had been cut to prepare for a period of lean cows that no one knew how long it would last. In the case of raw materials, the cuts arose from past low prices that had discouraged investments in new production capacity. This is also true. for 21st century ‘raw materials’, such as microchips “.
“The ‘magic’ of the offer that responds promptly to demand – Galimberti and Paolazzi point out – has been muted by various factors. For microchips, for example, increasing production capacity takes a long time, so complex (and expensive) are the dedicated production plants “.
The bottlenecks of the offer – they continue – are spreading in the most unexpected ravines of production processes. For example, scaffolding is missing. The pandemic also creates supply problems in the labor market. Travel barriers prevent many workers from going where they are needed, and this is especially true for seasonal migrants.
“All this – underline the economists – is obviously a hindrance. But in the end it will be demand that will lead the dance. And there are excellent reasons to predict that demand will remain lively: expansionary policies, high savings, confidence at the highest levels and perky investments,” to adapt the capacity to the greatest requests, present and expected, and to new technologies. And vaccinations that limit the contagiousness and mortality of Covid.19. Orders, despite the delays in delivery, continue to flock and there is no entrepreneur who does not have a broad smile on his face “.
“However, even in the absence of bottlenecks and discrepancies between supply and demand, the slowdown – the experts conclude – is physiological, after the first and powerful rebound. Annualized growth rates of 10% are in any case not sustainable, whatever the parameter used”