The week passed with a couple of negative news For Argentina.
The first was the judge of the judge United States, Loretta Presska which ordered that the debt for the lost trial of YPF It is paid with 51% of the oil shares that are in the hands of the State. The Government will appeal and for now refuses to comply with the provisions of the judge.
Almost He is sitting in the same armchair he used to occupy Thomas Griesa the late judge, who failed in favor of the holdouts and against the Argentina in the cause of debt restructuring. GRIESAhow Almosthe tired of waiting. Presidents, Ministers of Economy passed, and in the absence of ‘will’ to negotiate, they lowered the hammer.
The trial he lost YPF It is from some US $ 16,000 milliona figure that the government, owner of 51% of the company’s shares, cannot face. The trial with a favorable sentence to the Burford Capital Fund, which concentrated the litigation against the Argentine company, causes more than US $ 2 million daily interest. There are more: who defends the State in the case YPF es Robert Giffra Jr. The special season is that Giuffra Jr. He is also a lawyer for the president of the United States, Donald Trump.
While the judgment of YPF It is an inheritance of bad praxis in the nationalization of the oil company during the government of Cristina Kirchnerthe truth is that the sentence falls into the mandate of Javier Milei. That is, the definition of what is done with that trial corresponds to the current government.
There are investors who argue that keeping the trial of YPF Open is a bad sign. While lifting the stocks seems key to the arrival of capitals, that the country has so many judios (The one YPF is the largest of more than 260,000), adds points to the country risk. There are more. The agency Bloomberg He maintains that he YPF judgment It arises as a ray of hope to mercy Because some investors believe that the libertarian leader has the possibility of ending the prolonged judicial saga.
The former chief of cabinet of Milei, Nicolás Posse, said in 2024 in the Senate than Argentina He faced more than 264.000 judgments and that only 20% had a certain amount. That percentage added US $ 12,554 million.
In that figure the claims that are processed before the International Center for Investment Dispute Arrangements (CIADI), the World Bank Court.
Another bad news came from the energy sector. For the cold wave, half of the country ran out of compressed natural gas (CNG). The gas was also cut to the industries, the restaurants and Exports to Chile were suspended. Only in Mar del Plata residential users suffered cuts of energy
The crisis is explained, among other issues, for the greatest demand for energy. For the cold, consumption rose 10% against the previous week and 20% against the same week last year.
In case something was missing, the bank JP Morgan He said that “with the peak of agricultural income, the probability of continuous dollars out of tourism, possible electoral noises and a certain low performance of the peso that motivated exchange interventions in the future dollar, we prefer to take a step back and wait for better entry levels to return to position ourselves.” In other words, JP Morgan puts a brake In the recommendations to buy Argentine assets. It is the same entity that this year recommended otherwise.
However, there are other market actors who continue to see with good eyes to invest in the Argentina.
“Despite the challenges, the government maintains financing capacity in the short term: it has funds to face the payment payments of the coupons of the July 9 for US $ 4,200 million, while the expirations of 2025 would be covered with the planned disbursements of the FMI and other multilateral organisms, ”says a report from Advise Wealth Management (AWM) the global financial assets advice, whose clients are of very high purchasing power, and is commanded by the Argentine and former banker, Miguel Sulichin.
The key, according to CHEST, is that in an international scenario that becomes more favorable for emerging markets – with a Federal reserve More flexible and growing expectations of feature cuts towards the end of the year – Argentine assets capture attention again. The country risk is stabilized in the 700 -point zone, While financial flows begin to recover, driven by official measures to strengthen reserves. All this happens in a geopolitical framework still volatile but contained, which reinforces the relative attraction of emerging ones.
The point to be taken into account. An international bank that prefers to stay in anonymity says that “it is not the same if mercy It is doing well, or if the market intuits that in the short medium term I can return Kirchnerism. “
In the same way, AWN He maintains that “The relevant thing will be the political result of the next elections – with elections in the province of Buenos Aires in September and nationals in October – and the possibility of advancing in structural and labor reforms. If that path is consolidated, we project a loss of the country at the end of the year ”, Advierte.