Oil production reached a record and Vaca Muerta generates a relief in tension with the dollar

The crude oil production in Argentina reached a historical record in October 2025, with 859,500 barrels per day. It was the month with the highest production in history above the 853,000 barrels per day in May 1998, according to data from the Ministry of Energy.

Since then, there was a collapse until 2017, when it began to rebound rapidly due to investments and the productivity of the wells in Dead Cow.

This 2025 will close with an average oil production similar to that of 27 years ago, and the annual record will be broken between 2026 and 2027, when the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur (VMOS) pipeline is enabled, which will forever unblock the bottlenecks in the transportation of crude oil from the Neuquén basin to the consumption and export centers.

The figures also reflect that Thanks to energy, Argentina maintains a large trade surplus and avoids more volatility with the dollar. In the first ten months of 2025, the country achieved a positive trade balance in energy of 6,068 million dollars, while in all of 2024 it had been US$ 5,668 million, the Government reported.

The improvement in the same period was US$ 1,745 million, according to data from economist Nadin Argañaraz. “The main contribution of dollars came from higher exports for US$1,023 million and lower imports for US$722 million,” he commented.

In turn, these results are a consequence of an increase in quantities sold abroad by 2,176 million dollars and a drop in international prices of US$ 431 million.

Taking into account that Argentina sold more goods abroad than it bought for US$6,846 million from January to October, Energy -between Vaca Muerta, renewables and other sources- represented 89% of the positive balance.

“Vaca Muerta is consolidating itself as a stable source of foreign currency. Its spectacular performance coexists with a growing trend in imports, which would be strengthened with the recovery of activity,” analyzed the consulting firm Suramericana, directed by former Minister of Economy Martín Guzmán.

“In this context, the Government faces the dilemma between accumulating reserves – which would imply a higher exchange rate and a slower decrease in inflation but a lower country risk -, or maintaining the current scheme that has more short-term political benefits but is less robust for the development of the country,” assessed Suramericana.

Precisely, the recent debt issues in dollars by oil companies YPF, Tecpetrol, Pluspetrol and Pampa Energía, added to other energy companies such as TGS, Edenor and Genneia, as well as banks, are behind the exchange stability that was registered this month, once the Government’s electoral victory lowered the dollar and the perception of risk.

Forwards, Oil companies will have fewer funds for investments in 2026due to the drop in international oil prices and some delays that the Government had when paying for the gas they produce and sell in the domestic market. Production will grow strongly again towards 2027, when the infrastructure expansion will be available, with the VMOS in operation.

This is how the Government made the decision – not yet implemented – to eliminate export duties (withholdings) to conventional oil production, which despite representing 35% of the national total, is declining rapidly by 7.5% annually.

By Editor

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