The other farm? Vaca Muerta and mining contributed the same amount of dollars this year as the countryside

In the first four months of the year, the energy and mining sectors contributed practically the same amount of dollars as the agro-export complex. It is a sign of the increasing weight they have in the landscape of the productive network, driven by Vaca Muerta and mining investments.

The debate about whether these two sectors will be a “new” agriculture in terms of dollar contributions has existed for a long time. Now it seems to begin to crystallize. Another element that will influence even more is that items that most of RIGI’s project announcements are concentrated.

Of the US$94,922 million approved, according to a survey by the consulting firm Paspartú, 51% of the total are mining companies and 42% are oil and gas. According to the BCRA, as of April of the total announced investments, some US$1.3 billion had been specifically disbursed.

As highlighted in a report by the consulting firm 1816 based on sectoral data from the Central Bank, the net supply of dollars in the free exchange market coming from oil, gas and mining reached around US$8.15 billion between January and April. The amount was similar to that generated by cereals and oilseeds in the same period.

“The entire market has long expected that at some point energy will be as relevant to the balance of payments as agriculture and the truth is that that future has already arrived“said the consultant. The account made in 1816 includes liquidation of exports and also debt issues in dollars, such as negotiable obligations.

The data show, however, differences in the composition of these incomes. In the case of cereal companies, the 91% of the dollars entered during the quarter came from net exports. For the segment made up of oil, gas and mining, that proportion was 71%.

The difference is precisely explained by the relevance that the cfinancial locations. According to 1816, an important part of the dollars that entered the exchange market from these sectors came through the settlement of negotiable obligations issued by companies.

This phenomenon was also highlighted by the Mediterranean Foundation. “Behind this currency offer lies a combination of commercial and financial factors“said the entity.

The study added that “the flow is fueled by the external trade surplus” but that it also “strongly impacts the sale of dollars from negotiable obligations that continue to place the private sector and debt placements of some provinces“.

According to the Mediterránea Foundation, since the elections until today, debt issues by companies and provinces have accumulated close to US$15.5 billion.

The change in scale also appears in the projections for the coming years. An EcoGo report estimated that the recent rise in international oil price improves prospects for energy exports.

The consulting firm projects external sales of the sector for around US$15 billion in 2026compared to the US$ 11,000 million expected for 2025. In mining, estimates point to exports per US$7.7 billion next year, against US$5.6 billion in 2025.

In parallel, agriculture will also contribute a very considerable amount of dollars to the official market. EcoGo maintained that the improvement in international prices of the main agricultural products allows it to project agricultural exports close to US$32 billion in 2026.

With this scenario, the consulting firm raised its forecast for total exports of goods, which would remain on the verge of reaching US$100 billion. According to EcoGo, 2026 would end with foreign sales of almost US$97 billion.

The consequence would be a significant improvement in the external result. EcoGo revised upwards its estimate for next year’s trade balance and now expects a surplus of around US$20 billioncompared to the US$ 11.3 billion calculated for 2025.

1816 also highlighted another fact on the exchange front. According to the report, during April and May the trade surplus was enough to offset the demand for dollars without specific purposes – a category that the BCRA measures and that includes purchases for hoarding and part of the expenses linked to tourism – something that had not happened previously in the year.