The forecasts of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit on the economy of the United States, Mexico’s main trading partner and whose deterioration in activity will impact the country’s finances -according to the dependency-, point to a growth of nine times the calculated by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its most recent statement.
At the same time, the increase in interest rates by the US central bank, which according to financial analysts will continue to rise, redoubles the financial pressures on a debt of 108 thousand 505.1 million dollars contracted directly with that country by the public sector. Mexican.
In the design of the economic package for next year, the Treasury does not contemplate a recession in the United States, destination of 80 percent of Mexican exports, it even anticipates an average growth of 2.3 percent in 2022 and 1.8 percent for 2023, while time recognizes that the movement in interest rates and the trajectory of the gross domestic product in that country could modify the estimates for the Mexican economy.
By deciding to raise more than 0.75 points in its reference rate, to take it to a range between 3 and 3.25 percent, the Fed – the central bank of the United States – lowered its growth estimate for the economy to 0.2 percent per year. of that country during the last quarter of 2022. In the General Criteria for Economic Policy, recently delivered by the Treasury, an advance of 1.8 percent is expected for the same period.
Janneth Quiroz, Monex analyst, assured that a broad modification to next year’s economic package is not necessary because in the end the estimate is about the US economy for 2022, what must be addressed is how public finances are going to end up this year. Until July, the debt of the Mexican public sector with the United States amounted to 108 thousand 505.1 million dollars, practically half of the external debt.
Quiroz added that in any case, a revision would have to be made in Mexico’s GDP, as well as in the Federal Income Law and the 2023 budget. While Marco Oviedo, an independent analyst, argued that
what is relevant for public finances is nominal GDP growth. Unless there is a strong recession, such exact adjustments are not necessary.he pointed.
For her part, Gabriela Siller, director of economic and financial analysis at Banco Base, explained that there is a disparity between the estimates of the Treasury and those of the Federal Reserve on the United States economy, on which the external sector of Mexico.
I don’t think this will lead to the economic package being revalued, it should, but I don’t think.