Savers and investors will look for “clues” in the response of politics to the elections: if the ruling party tries the social agreement to advance with pending reforms, the expectation is that decompress the demand in the parallel market and the exchange gap begins to normalize. But, on the contrary, a more radical stance could put extra strain on the price of the dollar.

The first sign could be in the recorded message that President Alberto Fernández this Sunday in which he announced that he would send a bill to Congress in the first days of December to specify the multi-annual economic program, in agreement with the International Monetary Fund.

The margin of maneuver is limited: from STEP the Central Bank had to tighten the stocks exchange rate to try to stop the bleeding of dollars. However, in the last two months was released from US $ 1,600 million, If one takes into account both the wholesale market and the stock market, where it allocated US $ 800 million to contain cash with liquidation, which despite the controls reached $ 184.08 last Friday.

Additionally, the latest restrictions impacted on the gap between “free” financial prices and the wholesale dollar, which shot up 35% in the last sixty days, to go from 80% to 115% last Friday. At the same time, the uncertainty about the economic program translated into a rise in the blue, which closed at $ 200 on Friday, after “friendly hands” pushed the price back from $ 207.

For Ricardo Delgado, from Analytica, a less adverse result than expected for the ruling party “can give some oxygen to the Government to start doing the things it has to do quickly“, said.

“The market will react based on the first signals from the Government, which has to propose the next two years of its management based on three numbers: 50% inflation, 100% gap and 40% poverty. The decisions made based on this scenario are those that may or may not prevent a deepening of the crisis, “said the economist.

The pending agreement with the IMF appears as the key to reversing market expectations. “The sign of strong progress in the negotiations could serve to decompress the devaluation and inflation projections and, from there, reorder its macro discourse. In that sense, it should give the discussion of a realistic and plausible budget from the perspective of the market. ”

For Fernando Marull, from FMyA, despite the “comeback” of the ruling party in the Province, the results at the national level were in line with what had been seen in the PASO: “The market should improve in bonds and stocks, and decompress the parallel dollar “He said and added: “For the official dollar, we expect it to begin to devalue somewhat faster (to levels of 2.8% per month) and if the BCRA fails to buy reserves, they will tighten the stocks even more,” he said.

In this line of a market “on hold” until knowing the direction that the ruling coalition decides to take is shared by Lorenzo Sigaut Gavina, from Equilibra, who stated: “Less support in Congress for the ruling party can have a positive impact in the markets, which can anticipate a change in 2023. “

The consensus of the specialists is that to calm the waters in the parallel market, the body chaired by Miguel Pesce should begin to validate a depreciation closer to monthly inflation until the agreement with the IMF is closed. “This Monday could be a quiet day, we must see what role the Central Bank takes, if it begins to accelerate the depreciation of the exchange rate, which has been moving well below inflation,” anticipated the economist.

By Editor

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