AGI – In 2021 the Italian GDP will run more than the German one and will reach + 4.9% this year and next year as well. These are the new forecasts from S&P. The rating agency underlines that the rise is due to the effects of the Recovery. In Germany, on the other hand, GDP will rise by 3.5%.

Last April, Standard & Poor’s had forecast + 4.7%, while in 2022 at 4.2%. The effects on the labor market will be more evident next year: in 2021, the unemployment rate it will settle at 10% while in 2022 it will begin its descent, scoring 9.5%.

Finally, Italian inflation will rise by 1.3% against Germany’s 2.5% for 2021, while next year it will drop to 1.1% (1.3% in Germany).

S&P also revises the Eurozone growth estimate: GDP will rise by 4.4% this year and 4.5% in 2022 (from 4.2 and 4.4% of the previous forecasts). This is because experts see a more substantial effect of fiscal stimuli under the NRP plan, and a weaker contraction of GDP in the first quarter.

In a report, S&P explains that the recovery is shifting to services after starting with industry, as most of the restrictions on economic activity have fueled the propensity to save. “The long-term scars to the economy are likely to be limited by the coordinated European response to fiscal and monetary policy“The report states that Recovery plans could increase GDP between 1.3% and 3.9% in the eurozone over the next five years,” to the benefit of countries such as Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain, and reducing the economic gap in the euro area “.

By Editor

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