The Italian GDP, after a growth of 6.4% in 2021, will rise by 4.4% this year and by 2.2% next. The estimate is by Goldman Sachs, according to which the activity of the Eurozone will increase respectively by 5.3%, 4.4% and 2.5% in the three years considered.
Looking at individual countries, says analyst Sven Jarl Stehn, “we are relatively cautious about Germany for 2022 (given the importance of slowing growth in China and industrial bottlenecks) but above consensus expectations for 2023 (when we expect the new government’s investment spending to support growth). We are more clearly beyond the estimates for Italy and (especially) Spain, where we see ample room for growth and strong budget support thanks to the Recovery Fund. ”
Overall, Goldman Sachs expects that the impact of the spread of the Omicron variant of Covid on the economy will prove to be “more manageable compared to what happened last winter “.
The new strain of the coronavirus, notes Stehn, “it seems less severe than the previous variants and in Europe there is a higher immunization rate, which has helped protect health facilities. We expect the new containment measures to remain focused and patchy e there is no return to lockdown generalized nationals “.
The report also bets that the ECB will not intervene on rates, also thanks to a gradual return of inflation below the 2% threshold during the year. A rise in the cost of borrowing in 2022 is deemed “highly unlikely” and Goldman Sachs believes the Eurotower purchase program will run until the end of 2023, followed by a 10bp deposit rate hike in Q3. 2024.