On the other hand, the production losses in the Russian economy would account for up to 17 percent if not only those Western countries that are currently on board participate in the sanctions. Around a fifth of Russia’s total imports would be affected by the measures, which are primarily aimed at electronic and optical devices, machinery and equipment, motor vehicles and other means of transport such as ships or airplanes, and financial activities.
Accordingly, in the country itself, motor vehicle manufacturers would be hit hardest with a minus of 52 percent, and the production of electrical equipment would fall by 39 percent. The declines in mechanical engineering (minus 36 percent) or in the production of ships or aircraft (minus 34 percent) would be similarly high. For example, Russian computer and electronics production would be reduced by a third. However, if the import bans only come from the USA, Canada, the United Kingdom, the EU member states and other western countries, “total production in Russia will only drop by 6 percent”.
The team also calculated the expected short-term impact if harsh embargoes on “Russia’s main source of income,” fossil fuels, were implemented. The massive drop in demand for Russian oil and gas would therefore affect “almost all industrial sectors” there: “Our model forecasts assume an additional drop in production of 12.4 percent in addition to the 17 percent mentioned above.” On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, Norway, the USA and Australia would benefit the most from a delivery stop from Russia, according to the team, which also developed an interactive online tool based on the analysis.