` – The OECD superindex and the Zew on which it monitors the expectations of German investors cast new shadows on the consistency of the recovery.
The pace of the recovery will be more moderate
The Organization for Cooperation and Development indicator, after months of expansion, report how the pace of growth of the main world economies, starting with the US and the Eurozone, stand by slowing down: the rebound will continue but, compared to the past few months, there are signs that it will do so with less force– In July the indicator rose to 100.8 from 100.7 in June (after 100.5 in May, 100.3 in April and 100 in March) for the entire OECD area, with an increase of 3.4 points on the year.
At the same time, after disappointing data on industrial production even at the latest survey, lhe German locomotive shows once more that something has jammed: the Zew confidence index, which measures analysts’ expectations on the development of the German economy over the next six months, slipped to 40.4 points in August from 63.3 in July, down by 22.9 points. In addition to the consistency of the decline, the distance from analysts’ expectations, who projected it at 56.7 points, is also surprising. This is the third decline in the index since May, which matches the three consecutive declines in industrial production, squeezed between rising prices and a shortage of raw materials.
Concerns for the Chinese economy
Concerns about the consistency of the recovery in Europe and the US those that have emerged in recent weeks for the Chinese economy follow: on this front the OECD superindex continues to point towards constant expansion, ma in the Asian giant la industrial production is struggling e i producer prices are galloping, to the point that Goldman Sachs has sharply cut its growth estimates in the third quarter and revised downwards those for the whole of 2021.
The weight of Covid
Also in China, as in the rest of the world, continues to weigh the trend of the pandemic and in particular the increase in infections related to the Delta variant: if new restrictions have not yet been taken in the United States and Europe, in Beijing they have limited mobility and tightened controls to avoid the creation of new outbreaks. The doubts of the Chinese economy (the country is the second largest consumer of crude oil in the world) they also put the price of oil under pressure, with declines that, up to today’s recovery attempts, were close to double figures in just a few sessions, as evidence of how doubts remain on the market about the consistency of the economic recovery.