Nasdaq contracts are down about 2%; Bitcoin is at a 4-month low

Trading Review: Ongoing Reports, Trends, Indices, Stocks, Bonds, Forex and Commodities and Analyst Recommendations

12:55

Contracts for the Nasdaq are down 2% and contracts for the Dow Jones are down 1.3%.

Oil contracts are down 1.6% -2%. The yield on 10-year US government bonds rises to 3.20%.

12:15

Negative trend In Europe, major stock indices are down 0.8% -0.9%. Trading in US stock market indices is down by 1.6%.

Sami Shaar, chief economist of Swiss bank Lombard Odier, notes that “the Fed did not send a hawkish message or negative surprises in its announcement. Jerome Powell noted that raising 75 basis points” is not something the committee is considering “, at least with regard to subsequent meetings. “The Fed also did not present any positive surprises and made it clear that the path forward remains challenging.”

Referring to Lombard Odier Kadima’s forecast, Shaar said: “We expect 50 basis point interest rate hikes in June, July and September when the peak will be 3% in the first quarter of 2023. At the same time we expect a nearly $ 2 trillion cut from the Fed balance sheet by the end of 2023.”

Shaar adds: “So far this year, the markets have been led by the Fed’s rhetoric and will price a sharp tightening that will bring inflation down, with no expectation of a near-US recession. We believe US growth will remain above average this year, however, the risk of a recession in -2023 rose “.

In the crypto arena, Bitcoin continues to lose ground, dropping to $ 33,600, a 4-month low and a 50% drop from its peak. Eli Bejarano, CEO and founder of the Bit2C crypto exchange, notes that “the correlation between capital markets and crypto markets is higher than ever, and we are watching rampant inflation, continued interest rate hikes, and smells of rising war from the three powers Russia, China and the US. Crypto assets are usually much more liquid and as a result tend to be highly volatile in smaller markets than those of the major stock exchanges, foreign exchange bonds and options in the world.
However, in the past we have seen quite a few cases of correlation that changed direction and was even negative at times, so it is still too early to determine whether this correlation will be maintained for a long time to come. ”

10:15

The trading week on the European stock exchanges opened in a negative trend. Trading on US stock market indices is down 0.7% -0.8%.

The yield on 10-year US government bonds rises slightly to 3.15%.

Contracts for oil are down 0.9% and gold is down 0.6%.

In Tokyo today, the Nikkei index fell by about 2.5%.

08:45

Declines in Asia: The Nikkei drops 2.4% in Tokyo and China, with slight declines.

Trading in US stock market indices is down 1.1% -1% and the yield on 10 year US government bonds is rising slightly to 3.14%.

In the crypto arena, Bitcoin continues to lose ground, falling more than 3% and falling to $ 33,500, a 4-month low and a 50% drop from the peak. Etherium is also down more than 4% and is trading around $ 2,440.

07:30

Asian stock markets opened the trading week with a mixed trend. The stock markets in China have moved up slightly after previously declining while in Tokyo the Nikkei is down more than 2%.

Trading in US stock market indices is down 0.7% -1% and the yield on 10 year US government bonds is rising slightly to 3.14%.

In the commodity trading arena, there are slight increases in oil contracts. This is after Brent crude jumped $ 113 a barrel over the weekend and American WTI crude rose to $ 109.7 a barrel. This is a weekly increase of 5.5% and 4.8%, respectively.

The price of gold is down slightly to $ 1,875 an ounce. Bitcoin continues to lose ground and drops to $ 33,800, a 4-month low.

In its weekly review released after a sharp decline in markets last weekend, Oppenheimer’s technical strategist Ari Wald continues to estimate that the S&P 500 is expected to fall by up to 20% in the short term, to the level of 3,800 points expected during the third quarter. At the same time, Oppenheimer’s technical strategist maintains his positive assessment of the US stock market in the long run, based on historical market behavior after major crises.

On the macro side, Wald notes the 10-year jump in U.S. government bond yields, given inflation expectations, as the key risk factor. However, he emphasizes that the level of long-term bond yields at the beginning of previous periods of the bear market exceeded 6%, double the current rate of return of 3.25%, when historically the level is 4% and raises the breaking point for the stock market.

By Editor

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