Will the classic ‘Up to 120 Years’ wish soon be upgraded? A new study predicts that there is no small chance that by the end of the current century there will be people celebrating the 130th birthday. The researchers concluded that by 2100, it is almost one hundred percent likely that the currently known 122-year high will be broken. There is a 99% probability that someone will live to 124, a 68% chance that someone will reach 127, and a 13% probability that a person will reach 130 years of life.
Researchers at the University of Washington have used a number of statistics to determine the maximum life expectancy in the current century. According to data published in the journal Royal Society Open Science, humans can certainly live up to 130 years. The team used the International Longevity Database, which includes more than 1,100 listings from 13 countries, as a preliminary step in their research. In addition, the researchers examined data from Italy between January 2009 and December 2015 on all adults over the age of 105.
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“People are fascinated by the extremes of humanity, whether it’s going to the moon, how fast someone can run in the Olympics, or even how long someone can live,” said research author Michael Pierce, a doctoral student in statistics. “With this work, we illustrate the chance that we believe people will be able to reach different extreme ages in this century,” he said.
“There is strong evidence of an upper limit to human life expectancy of about 130 years,” the researcher said. “But that does not mean that such ages will come soon, since the probability is equal to the chance of getting the same result in 20 consecutive coin tosses.”
While there are a growing number of people who live longer, the authors noted that the mortality rate flattens out after a certain age, which means that those who reach 110 have the same chances of living another year, as those who reach 114. In addition, researchers found that after age 108, the chances Live another year are 50-50. “They’ve been through all the things in life that can affect, like diseases, and they die of causes that no longer depend to some extent on what affects younger people,” explained research author Adrian Raftari, a professor of sociology and statistics. “This is a very elite group of very strong people.”
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The oldest person in the world ever recorded is the Frenchman Jean Clement, who died at the age of 122 in 1997. In recent decades there has been a steady increase in the number of people over the age of 100, and currently the oldest person in the world recorded is 118-year-old Kane Tanaka from Japan In 2016, Israel Krystal was declared by the Guinness Book of Records as the oldest man living in the world, at the age of 112. Krystal is the longest-lived Israeli man, as of 2021, he is still among the ten oldest men who have ever lived in the world, and is in tenth place In the list.
Life expectancy in Israel and around the world
The average life expectancy in Israel is one of the leading in the world, and in 2017 it was 81.2 for men and 84.5 for women. According to the World Health Organization report for 2019, Israel took ninth place in the life expectancy index together with Norway. The average life expectancy for both sexes was 82.6 years in both countries. 2.5 years every ten years.
According to data published by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), between 2000 and 2014, the proportion of 100-plus people increased 1.5 times: from 50,000 people in 2000 to more than 72,000 people aged 100-plus in 2014. And this is just the beginning – according to the study’s author, Jiakwan Kasu, in 35 years 387,000 people are expected to live in the United States, more than five times their number today.
Life expectancy in the last 35 years (1979-1975 to 2014-2010) has increased by 8.8 years among men and 9 years among women. Of those born today – about 61% of men and about 73% of women are expected to reach the age of at least 80.