The alarming news of new cases of infection in Binyamina and Modiin makes us wonder if the corona is likely to return to our lives and disrupt the routine life to which we were so excited to return. Today (Sunday) Prof. Ran Blitzer tweeted on Twitter that “the latest outbreaks in Modi’in and Binyamina have probably been caused by the Delta strain and that he is responsible for 30-40% of infections in recent weeks here and will become, as in the UK “For the main and almost exclusive strain here – due to its high contagion (1.5 times) any foreigner who does not take care of isolation when required – can lead (at least) to a widespread local outbreak in children.”
Prof. Ran Blitzer, head of Clalit’s innovation department and head of Corona’s National Cabinet of Experts, explains: “In the last three weeks, the strain has caused a widespread outbreak in the UK, which has jumped from 2,000 patients to over 10,000 patients a day, Of the population there is vaccinated in two doses, and another 25 percent in one dose.
The data from the United Kingdom show that this is a significantly more contagious strain than the strain that has been known in Israel so far (alpha) – 1.5 times or more. ”
Prof. Blitzer also notes a number of testimonies according to which it seems that 40-30 percent of the low morbidity in Israel is already caused by this strain. “In the last two outbreaks, both in Modi’in and in Binyamina, there is still no full flooring, but there is the first laboratory evidence that it is probably a Delta.”
The latest eruptions in Modi’in and Binyamina were probably caused by the Delta strain
It is responsible for 30-40% of infections in the last Saturday here and will become, as in the UK, the main and almost exclusive strain here – due to its high infection (1.5 times)
Any foreigner who does not take care of isolation when required – can lead (at least) to a widespread local outbreak in children
— Ran Balicer (@RanBalicer) June 19, 2021
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What is the main concern?
“Over a third of Israel’s residents are not vaccinated, most of them children. Due to the contagious nature of the strain, there is concern that it will cause limited local outbreaks, but also constant transmission within and between communities. Moreover, it is important to understand the importance of childhood morbidity. “It is rare but they do exist, and beyond that it is not clear what the effects of the virus will be on the future health of its patients. There is also concern for unvaccinated adults, especially in localities where there are concentrations of unvaccinated adults, and to a lesser extent, vaccinated adults.”
“In the last two outbreaks, both in Modi’in and in Binyamina, there is still no full flooring, but there is the first laboratory evidence that it is probably a delta. The vaccine protection is complete and identical to the alpha strain in terms of serious disease, but a little less complete in terms of infection.”
Prof. Ran Blitzer
Why actually vaccinated should also be feared?
“Evidence at the moment is that those who are vaccinated with two doses of Pfizer vaccine are also well protected against the Delta strain. The protection is complete and identical to the alpha strain in terms of the risk of serious illness, and is a little less complete in terms of the risk of infection.
Therefore, the vaccine does not fully guarantee that a person will not be infected and will not be infected, but it significantly reduces the risk of this compared to not a person who is not vaccinated, and certainly dramatically reduces the risk of serious illness following the infection. ”
What needs to be done in practice?
“Improve the conduct at Ben Gurion Airport, make sure that strict inspections are carried out for all entrants without exception, and also make sure that everyone who is required for isolation does indeed carry it out. We must also continue to monitor and manage any outbreak, to contain it at the local level.” “Re-examine the policy of isolation and conduct of children who are not vaccinated in enclosed spaces, and with it also re-examine the possibility of recommending (and not just allowing) vaccination for 16-12 year olds.”
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“If there was no ‘import’ from abroad – it would not happen”
In recent days, it has become apparent that there is a certain increase in morbidity data in the country. Although this is a slow and moderate increase, the graph is still clear, and a few more individual patients are added every day. If last Friday, for example, 34 patients were diagnosed, yesterday the number was 46. Dr. Doron Dushnitzky, a pediatrician from the medical division of Leumit Health Services and a member of the “Madat” association and the Haifa committee, is troubled by the trend, which he estimates is directly related to Yedioth. Recent on the spread of the Delta variant.
“The variant is spreading and infecting with great speed, and it is clear to us that if there were no ‘imports’ from abroad it would not be happening in a country that was almost completely free of corona. I think it is advisable to tighten the rules at Ben Gurion Airport and ensure proper isolation of returnees. Only if we can prevent the return of passengers with the rest of the population will we be able to control the increase in morbidity in time.
“We still do not see red cities, but from our acquaintance with the virus, it should not be long before the number of patients increases in a way that will be difficult to control.”
Dr. Doron Dushnitzky
“We still do not see red cities, but from our familiarity with the virus, it does not take long for the number of patients to rise in a way that will be difficult to control.”
Why are vaccines needed for isolation?
“The vaccine protects well, but even those vaccinated may transmit the new variant, so taking critical precautions here, even if it seems like a hysterical step. It is important to study the situation in depth and not take it lightly. Every epidemiological case must be examined and monitored to prevent spread. We are in a situation where morbidity can still be controlled and the momentum should be taken advantage of. “