The steroide 2024 YR4which was considered the highest impact risk against the ever registered, has increased possibilities of impacting against the Luna in 2032, from 3.8 to 4.3 percent.
Although now too distant to observe it from Earth, the asteroid was briefly visible in May for the James Webb space telescope (JWST). Using data from the nearby infrared chamber of the telescope, a team led by Andy Rivkin, of the Applied Physics Laboratory of Johns Hopkins, refined the predictions on the location of 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032 in almost 20 % to calculate the impact possibilities again, according to an update of the NASA.
“As the data is received, it is normal for the probability of impact evolving,” said the statement. Even if a collision occurred, “it would not alter the lunar orbit.”
The astronomer Pawan Kumar, former researcher of the Indian Institute of Astrophysics in Bengaluru, agrees that the moon is a safe place and points out that a collision “will not be a reason for concern”, since any lunar residue expelled to the space after the impact “will explode in the earth’s atmosphere if it reaches the close space to the earth,” according to Space.com.
Non -confirmed threat to Earth
First detected on December 27 of last year, it is estimated that 2024 YR4 has between 53 and 67 meters long, approximately the size of a 10 -storey building. The asteroid quickly monopolized holders for having more than 1 % probability of impacting with the Earth, the largest recorded for a large asteroid. Subsequent observations made in January and February showed that the impact risk increased from 1.2 % to a maximum of 3.1 %.
/
The projected trajectory of the asteroid at that time suggested that it could cause explosion damage in a large zone of potential impact, which covers the Eastern Pacific, northern South America, Africa and southern Asia. If it enters the Earth’s atmosphere on the ocean, NASA estimated that it would be unlikely to trigger significant tsunamis, but an explosion in the air over a populated city could break windows and cause minor structural damage.
However, the impact risk was drastically reduced as additional orbital data were received. By February 19, the probability had dropped to 1.5% and 0.3% the next day. On February 24, NASA officially announced on social networks that the probability of impact had been reduced to only 0.004% and that the asteroid is expected to pass safely near Earth in 2032.
Subsequent analysis have allowed scientists to rule out any risk for the earth, not only in 2032, but also in future approaches. Telescope data in Chile and Hawaii recently suggested that the space rock originated in the main central belt between Mars and Jupiter and gradually moved to an orbit close to the earth.
Since mid -April, the asteroid has been too far and weak to be seen from Earth. It will appear again in 2028, which will provide scientists with another opportunity to observe it and refine their orbit using both JWST and terrestrial telescopes. In particular, scientists will seek to collect more data on their form and composition, key factors to understand both their behavior and the possible impact effects.