Winter is coming and everyone wants snow: preferably from now until February. The centenary calendar gives many fans hope – because it promises a lot of white for this year.
The calendar is based on weather observations by Abbot Mauritius Knauer (1613–1664) in Upper Franconia in the 17th century. He assumed that there was a connection between the visible celestial bodies and the… Wetter weather conditions repeat themselves in a seven-year cycle.
According to the calendar, snow from mid-November
Accordingly, from mid-November onwards Winter start with heavy snowfall. According to the calendar, the white splendor should remain there until Christmas.
It is expected to get noticeably cooler in Germany on November 13th
Graduate meteorologist Dominik Jung from Wetter.net told BILD: “The centenary calendar is not useful from a technical point of view. These are mostly coincidences, especially since the climate and weather have changed significantly in the past few decades due to global warming.”
Weather experts are dampening the winter mood
Also Dr. Karsten Brandt from Donnerwetter.de dampens expectations that are too high: “A look at the 1990s, 2000s or 2010s quickly shows that weather conditions by no means stick to any cycles. By chance, a forecast from the calendar can be correct, but it is by no means suitable as a reliable forecasting instrument,” he tells BILD.
Where does the fascination for the calendar come from? Expert Jung suspects: “Because farming rules build a bridge between observation of nature, culture and emotion. For centuries, people have tried to gain clues about the weather from recurring patterns over the course of the year.” These rules are far less complex than scientific explanations, part of collective memory and often easy to remember.
Accuracy with the calendar is rather unimportant
Climatologist Brandt adds: “Scientific accuracy plays a subordinate role here. Older generations in particular still follow the concept of historical appeal, simple weather rules and supposed predictability even 400 years later. This interaction ensures that the calendar is continually republished, advertised and therefore believed.”
Walkers take advantage of the calm autumn weather for a trip to the Baltic Sea beach in Kühlungsborn
This is what the weather really is like
The new week brings mostly friendly and mild weather in the south of Germany, but in the north it remains rather gray and cloudy. On Wednesday it will be partly cloudy in the north. Otherwise it is usually clear with highs between 10 and 19 degrees.
Weather madness: There will soon be no more snow here
According to Dominik Jung, it will only start to get a little cooler from the weekend onwards, with more high fog instead of sun. “In the middle of the month the wind could turn to the north and bring cooler air masses. I doubt whether this will bring a lasting onset of winter.”
Graduate meteorologist Jürgen Schmidt from WetterKontor recommends: “If you can, you should enjoy the hours of sunshine in the next few days.”