The missiles launched by Iran contra Israel During the weekend they were not only a reprisal for the Israeli attack on Beirut. They also constituted a show of force by Tehranwhich seeks to make it clear that, despite the months of war, the attacks on its territory and the erosion of its military capabilities, retains sufficient resources to respond and raise the costs of any escalation. For analysts, the offensive reflects that The Islamic Republic tries to rebuild its deterrence capacity against Israel and the United Stateswhile reaffirming its commitment to protecting strategic allies such as Hezbollah.

Then, Israel and the United States were betting that the coup against the Iranian political and military leadership would trigger an internal crisis and a popular uprising. that would weaken the regime from within. However, far from producing a revolution, Tehran managed to preserve its power structures, quickly replace its cadres, elect a new supreme leader, Mojtab Jamenei, and thus maintain the cohesion of the State.

On the military level, Iran immediately responded with direct missile and drone attacks against Israel. Also expanded the conflict to countries in the region allied with the United Statesattacking US military bases, as well as refineries and strategic infrastructure located in several Gulf nations.

Finally, Iran resorted to one of the measures that analysts feared before the start of the war: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, strategic step through which 20% of the oil sold in the world passes. The decision caused a strong shock in the energy markets and led the price of a barrel to exceed $100.

The war went into a lull on April 8, when Trump announced a truce. Since then, with the mediation of Pakistanthe parties negotiate a solution to the conflict. However, recent exchanges of attacks endanger the process.

Despite the harsh military, political and economic blows suffered since the beginning of the war, several facts suggest that Iran retains pressure and deterrence capacity against Israel and the United States. These are the main signs:

Iran had repeatedly warned that it would not accept attacks against Hezbollah in Beirut. When Israel crossed that line, Tehran responded with missiles.

From a strategic perspective, the message was clear: an attack on Hezbollah could trigger a direct Iranian responseexactly the deterrence doctrine that Tehran is trying to build.

Following the Iranian response, Trump personally intervened to ask Netanyahu not to respond and to give space to negotiations. Various US media reports indicate that Washington sought to contain the Israeli reaction instead of supporting an immediate escalation.

To Iranthis can be presented as a political victory, since His actions forced the United States to prioritize containment over offensive.