Ukraine continues to advance – but risks the failure of the attack

The Ukrainian army continues to advance in the counterattack to liberate the occupied territories from the Russian army, and manages to record significant successes. At the end of last week, Kiev announced the liberation of two important villages in the fighting in the east, but on the southern front, which is even more important, doubts are growing regarding the continuation of Ukrainian successes.The ground forces of the Ukrainian army announced in recent days the liberation of the two villages of Andreevka and Kilishevka in the Donetsk region, adjacent to the city of Akhmat, which was occupied a few months ago by the Russians led by the Wagner group. The Ukrainians manage to advance in the fighting in the east, although the focus of the fighting has shifted to the southern front in the Zaporizhia region. This evening Oleksandr Sirsky, commander of the ground forces of the Ukrainian army, said that his men “managed to break through the defense line of the Russian army near Bakhmut”.

 

The #Ukrainian flag was raised in liberated #Andriivka, #Donetsk region pic.twitter.com/0piHJOQVZ0

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 18, 2023

After several successes in the southern sector a few weeks ago, with the liberation of the town of Robotin, no further reports were received of Ukrainian advances in the sector. Various sources covering the war estimated that the Ukrainian army may in the near future encounter difficulties in continuing to advance, due, among other things, to the fact that the Russian army is working to thicken its defense arrays in the region. The British intelligence reported this morning that the Russian army apparently transferred about five battalions of elite paratroopers to the sector (VDV).

 

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 18 September 2023.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence’s use of language: https://t.co/emfF1MWOY2

#StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/EMTbFlhR2O

— Ministry of Defence (@DefenceHQ) September 18, 2023

In the West, they continue to look with concern at the progress of the Ukrainian army in the counterattack, which began more than three months ago, but has not yet been able to bring about the desired results on the battlefield. After the hot summer months, there is now a growing fear that the Ukrainian army will not be able to register any more significant achievements before the winter, which may begin to give its signals already in the coming weeks, and consequently make it very difficult for Ukraine’s continued progress in fighting.

 

On the other hand, the senior researcher Michael Koffman expressed optimism that it is possible that in the near future the Ukrainian army will be able to record significant achievements on the battlefield, and estimated that the momentum is actually on the side of Kyiv, despite what appears to be a tactical hold on the part of the Russians. According to many sources, the Russian army may encounter a real manpower problem, and it is clear that it no longer has large reserves of fighters. Because of this, there are estimates that the Ukrainian army will be able to produce a real breakthrough within a short period of time.

 

The Crimean Peninsula, the region annexed by Russia from Ukraine in 2014, has become one of the most intense arenas of fighting in recent weeks. The ground forces of Ukraine are indeed very far from there, but a series of massive explosions and attacks that have occurred there recently signal the willingness of the Ukrainians to bring about a change in the situation there.

Ukraine has systematically removed Russian capabilities around Crimea:

-Destroyed S-400 launcher at Cape Tarkhankut
-Removed radar and sensors from oil/gas platforms in Black Sea
-Facilitating (?) attacks on Russian Black Sea Fleet ships in Sevastopol
-Hit S-400 at Yevpatoria

— ELINT News (@ELINTNews) September 14, 2023

Photos were published today of the Russian submarine “Rostov on the Don” which was severely damaged in last week’s Ukrainian attack on the Black Sea Navy shipyard in Sevastopol in the southwest of the Crimean peninsula, an attack in which a Navy marine was also severely injured. In addition to this, Ukrainian intelligence has carried out several significant attacks in the region, which included the impressive destruction of some of Russia’s most important air defense systems in this region. To this can also be added the Ukrainian takeover of the gas and oil production points in the Black Sea, west of the Crimean Peninsula. Strong explosions were also reported yesterday in the Sevastopol area, and although no exact details were given, various sources reported that a secret and successful operation by the Ukrainian intelligence was also carried out yesterday.

Leaked footage of Russian Rostov-on-Don submarine. Sevastopol’s dry dock. pic.twitter.com/f6csmOCmCY

— Special Kherson Cat (@bayraktar_1love) September 18, 2023

Meanwhile, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky continues to clarify that he will not agree to give up any piece of Ukrainian territory in order to bring the war to an end, and tonight he said in an interview to the “60 Minutes” network program CBS Because he will not agree to this even in exchange for peace. At the same time as the intense and difficult war, Zelensky’s government continues the internal fight against corruption, and this morning it was reported that all six deputy ministers of defense were removed from their positions. All the deputy ministers have been working in the office in Kiev since the days of the previous minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, who was dismissed about two weeks ago due to the various corruption scandals that were spread in the office.