Head to head Macron – Le Pen, but the president goes towards re – election

On the eve of the vote in France for the Elysée, increase those who intend to go to urns, but the gap between outgoing president Emmanuele Macron and his main challenger, Marine Le Pen, has never been so thin, at least in the first round: the two are at just one percentage point behind. And in the second Macron has only a slight advantage over the leader of the Rassemblement National, 2%.

However, more than one in 2 French people expect Macron to be re-elected, despite the evident difficulties of the candidate president. This is the result of an Elabe survey that photographs the state of the current balance of political power in France, on the day of electoral reflection.

The heads up is impressive. Marine Le Pen advances and is placed in the first round with 25% of the voting intentions against 26% of Emmanuel Macron. The gap between the two favorites is also reduced in the second round with Macron at 51% (-2 points) and Marine Le Pen at 49% (+2).

In the first round the candidate of France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Melenchon, also rises againwhich reaches 17.5%, in third position; far behind Eric Zemmour (8.5%, -0.5) and Valerie Pécresse (8%, =). It should be noted that, given these results and considering the margin of error, the Macron / Le Pen ballot is obviously the only one considered plausible.

In the analysis of the voting flows, it emerges that the outgoing president maintains very solid support among his own 2017 voters (76% would vote for him again) and significant support among the voters of François Fillon (24%) and Benoît Hamon (21%), but is in general decline in the electorate and has slipped to a level of consensus before the war in Ukraine (it is the so-called “faded flag effect”).

On the other hand, the path of Le Pen is triumphal, who earned 2 percentage points in 3 days, 10 even in a month. Marine Le Pen goes on and has never had such high support among her 2017 voters (76%, +5 in 3 days, +26 in 1 month), those of François Fillon (17%, +6 in 3 days) , +15 in 1 month) and voters who are politically positioned on the right (33%, +9 in 3 days, +17 in 1 month).

Marine Le Pen advances among those strata of the population that are most inclined to vote for it, namely the French who are struggling to make ends meet (36%, +6). Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the radical fringe of the French left, advances and reaches 17.5% (+2) of voting intentions and is doing very well among the under 35s, where he registers 27% of voting intentions. As for the others in contention, environmentalist Yannick Jadot is down (4%, -1), while Fabien Roussel (2.5%,) and Anne Hidalgo (2%) are stable.

The survey finds that to date 76% (+4 in 3 days) of voters say they are sure of their choice, while 24% (-4) could change their mind by Sunday; and that the most confident voters of their choice are those of Marine Le Pen (85%, +1 in 3 days) and Emmanuel Macron (84%, +2), ahead of Éric Zemmour’s potential voters (81%, +2 ), Jean-Luc Mélenchon (80%, +4) and Valérie Pécresse (78%, +4). On the other hand, potential voters of Yannick Jadot seem less certain of their choice.

In the second round, Emmanuel Macron (51%, -2) has only a slight advantage over Marine Le Pen (49%, +2) in voting intentions. But despite this, despite its difficulties, more than 1 French in 2 foresees the re-election of Emmanuel Macron (54%, -6 compared to 5 April), only 22% (+2) foresees a victory for Marine Le Pen and just 10% (+2) for Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

By Editor

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