Italy | In the latest political polls little has changed compared to the European elections

Supermedia of polls is finally back, after a break of almost a month and a half. The length of this interruption is due to the coincidence between the European elections (for which the law imposes, as for all elections of national importance, a stop to polls in the two weeks preceding) and the run-offs of the administrative elections, held two weeks later. In this period of time, the first national polls on voting intentions were published at first with an eyedropper, and then resumed with a more normal frequency only in the last 10-15 days. And this is precisely the reference period of today’s Supermedia, on which there was a certain expectation to understand if – and in what way – the outcome of the elections influenced the political orientations of Italians

As you can see, the data are extremely in line with the data from the European elections, which took place almost a month ago. Fratelli d’Italia is the first party, followed at a relatively short distance (less than 5 points) by the Partito Democratico. Third, just above 10%, is the Movimento 5 Stelle, while Forza Italia and Lega are around 9% and the Alleanza Verdi/Sinistra confirms itself with a very positive figure (6.6%).

In their own way, even these “static” data are news: in fact, unlike what has happened several times in the past after an election (national or even local), this time there is no “bandwagon effect”, neither positive for the parties perceived as winners, nor negative for those perceived as losers. And this despite the fact that these were elections that, as all analysts unanimously noted, gave a very clear response in this sense. The biggest variation (-0.6) concerns Forza Italia, but it is a drop that can be attributed to the fact that the institutes have returned to survey Noi Moderati as a separate entity, which had run on the lists of Tajani’s party.

Another novelty, perhaps more evident, is the breakdown of the United States of Europe list: as a result, the polls have once again started to estimate Italia Viva and Più Europa separately, and in this way we can also go back to estimating the electoral consistency of the center-left as a coalition as it presented itself to voters in the 2022 general elections (containing PD, AVS and, indeed, Più Europa). As of today, that coalition would be worth just under a third of voters (32.4%), lagging behind the center-right by a good 15 points (47.3%).

But there will be time to comment on any changes in consensus that have occurred in the post-European Union, or on Italians’ opinions on current political issues. Today it seems more urgent to focus on the elections that are currently renewing the legislative assemblies (i.e. parliaments) in two of the most important European countries: France and the United Kingdom. Let’s start with the latter, where the polls are open today (Thursday 4 July) and which are perhaps the elections with the most predictable outcome that have been seen in several decades in that country. According to all the polls, in fact, the enormous advantage accumulated by the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer during these last years (in which the Conservatives, who have now been in government in the United Kingdom uninterruptedly for 14 years, have accumulated errors and incidents) should not be dented by last-minute surprises. As a result, Labour is looking set for a landslide victory, with the latest estimates putting it at over 400 seats (out of 650), a margin not seen since Tony Blair’s victory in 1997.

 

Labour is expected to elect well over 400 MPs, threatening Tony Blair’s record of 418 MPs in 1997. On the other hand, the Conservatives risk not only a very large defeat, but also not being the second party, given the competition from Reform UK… pic.twitter.com/blgGuaH0X0

— Youtrend (@you_trend)
July 3, 2024

 

The hyper-majority that Labour could enjoy starting tomorrow is due to the electoral system: a single-round majoritarian system (the classic “first-past-the-post”) in which the candidate who obtains even just one vote more than his opponents is elected MP, regardless of the percentage. This is not the case in France, where there is also a majoritarian system based on single-member constituencies, but which provides for a second round in the event that no candidate obtains an absolute majority (50% + 1) of the votes in the first round: which is precisely what happened last Sunday in over 500 constituencies out of the 577 total in which the same number of members of the French National Assembly will be elected.

 

However, after the excellent result of the candidates of the Rassemblement National in the first round, the centrists of Ensemble (the coalition represented by President Macron) and the left of the NFP (New Popular Front) coalition agreed to withdraw their candidates in over 200 constituencies to increase the chances that the RN would not obtain an absolute majority. Based on the results of the first round, in fact, we should have seen over 300 “triangular” challenges: that is how many constituencies there were in which the candidates who had earned access to the second round were precisely three.

 

Most of the dropouts are in constituencies where the RN came in first last Sunday (in dark brown in Le Monde’s graphic), but at least three candidates qualified for the second round. pic.twitter.com/QpMSsmLzAK

— Youtrend (@you_trend)
July 3, 2024

 

After these desistance agreements, the number of triangular votes dropped to 95, while the two-way challenges (the classic run-offs) rose from 190 to 404. And it will be precisely in these that the outcome of the legislative elections will be decided: if the centrist and left-wing voters truly unite against the “common enemy” represented by the radical right of Le Pen and Bardella’s RN, the latter will not have an absolute majority and will hardly be able to obtain from Macron the nomination of a prime minister belonging to his ranks (ideally, Bardella himself); vice versa, for France (but also for Europe) a completely new season will open, full of unknowns. We will have the answer on Monday.

By Editor

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