Climate change makes storms stronger in Southeast Asia

Researchers from Rowan University, USA; Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore and the University of Pennsylvania, USA, came to the conclusion based on an analysis of more than 64,000 historical and modeled future storms, spanning from the 19th century to the late 21st century. This is the first study to use data from multiple climate models to examine storms over three centuries.

Hurricanes typically form in tropical regions near the equator, characterized by warm ocean waters that provide the heat and moisture needed for these storms to develop and strengthen.

“Southeast Asia has a very densely populated coastline that is currently home to more than 70% of the global population that is exposed to future sea level rise. When you look at that densely populated coastline and it’s an area that is impacted by storms, there is a real risk, especially as those storms become more damaging and the population continues to grow,” said Andra Garner, lead author of the study and assistant professor in Rowan University’s School of Earth & Environment. Nature.

The study, published in the journal Nature Climate and Atmospheric Sciencehighlighting significant changes in the behavior of storms in Southeast Asia, such as them increasingly forming close to the coast and moving slowly over land — factors that could pose new risks to the region.

Warming ocean waters around the world are fueling these storms, according to researchers. The warmer the waters, the more energy storms can draw from them.

The storm has unleashed torrential rains and severe flooding across Southeast Asia, forcing mass evacuations, destroying infrastructure and affecting thousands of lives. “Our research shows that as storms move over warmer oceans due to climate change, they absorb more water vapor and heat. This means stronger winds, heavier rainfall and more flooding when they make landfall,” said study co-author Professor Benjamin Horton, Director of NTU’s Earth Observatory of Singapore.

How do storms form and ‘die’?

Unlike traditional studies of historical weather patterns and hurricanes, researchers have tweaked computer simulations to manipulate various factors, such as the projected increase in human-caused emissions and their impact on a warming planet. These simulations have provided important insights into how climate change is altering where hurricanes form, intensify, slow down, and ultimately dissipate.

“By leveraging nine global climate models, this study significantly reduces the uncertainty in predicting storm changes, which was a challenge in previous studies using only a single model,” said Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Senior Research Fellow at NTU’s Earth Observatory of Singapore and co-author of the study.

“Conducting a long-term analysis allows for a better understanding of both past and future changes to storm trajectories, which can inform coastal resilience strategies in both the near and more distant future,” added co-author Mackenzie Weaver, from the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania.

According to Garner, countries need to take action to reduce emissions and protect coastlines to limit the negative impacts of future storms.

Southeast Asia has a densely populated coastline, home to more than 70% of the world’s population. Most recently, Typhoon Yagi affected tens of millions of people living in coastal areas and left cities such as Bangkok in Thailand, Hai Phong, Quang Ninh in Vietnam and Yangon in Myanmar exposed to unprecedented threats from longer and more intense storms.