The fall is record-breaking and analysts are pushing recovery to 2025

After the 17.2% drop in sales of the supermarkets and self-service stores in August, which was reported by the consulting firm Scentia and which resulted the worst monthly record in the last 10 years, Another measurement was known that confirms the fall in consumption to record levels. According to Nielsen IQ data, the general decline reached 16,7% y resulted in a negative close for all channels during the last two months.

According to these measurements, the drinks registered a fall of 17.7%. alcoholic collapsed 27.2% while the non-alcoholic (they fell by 13.9%).

In the case of the food, the fall was 15.8% as a result of a 14.1% drop in non-basic items, sweets (17.3%) and basic foods (17.6%).

The negative trend was also recorded in sales of products from personal care and cleaningwhich fell by 16.7%, with significant declines for home and laundry cleaning (18,5%) y cosmetics and toiletries, where the drop averaged 15.9%.

According to various analysts, Consumption has not yet found its bottom and the perspective that was being handled at the beginning of the year about a possible recovery in this second half, fades away.

“We thought that sales would start to plateau in July of this year, but far from it, in August, consumption fell much more,” commented one of the main food companies in the market. According to their estimates, “The light at the end of the tunnel” will only begin to be seen in mid-2025he estimated.

The key to making this happen is in income recoverycompanies and analysts agree. While the salaries of registered employees began to rise above inflation from the second quarter of 2024, They still have a long way to go. Even more so for public and unregistered salaries, which continue to show declines.

The slowdown in inflation, for its part, should play in favour of a faster recovery in consumption. However, for now, Wage depreciation continues to tip the balance towards spending cuts. According to research by Moiguer, a consulting firm for Strategy, 69% of consumers believe that their household income is below inflation. And 55% had to use savings, in recent months, to pay daily budget expenses.

An ingredient in the lower consumption capacity of people in supermarkets and stores is the weight of inelastic goods and services which increased significantly at the beginning of the year and can still increase further. For example, The average expenditure per household in the AMBA, on water, electricity, gas and transportation It was $30,100 in December 2023 and climbed to $118,825 in June of this year, according to a recent study by the consulting firm Ecolatina.

According to Damián Di Pace, Director of the consulting firm Focus Market, “mass consumption continues to suffer. The outlook for the final part of the year is that year-on-year sales volumes cannot be overcome.”

According to the analyst, the current meager numbers of mass consumption are due to the Comparison to the last quarter of 2023 which was full of anabolic steroids to improve demand conditions with Increase in social plans, financing, increase in pensions and retirement“in the electoral context to increase consumption in the different socioeconomic sectors,” he recalled.

Regarding the strategies of businesses to attract consumers reluctant to spend, the expert said that “Offers, promotions and discounts become a basic rule to sustain volumes“. Where there is more stock, the more intense and frequent the promotions are. Credit card spending is increasing year-on-year and slowly falling in a seasonally adjusted manner,” said Di Pace.