State election in Brandenburg: SPD narrowly ahead of AfD

After State elections in Brandenburg from Sunday, the ruling SPD by Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke just before the AfD.

According to the 6 p.m. forecasts from ARD and ZDF are followed by the CDU and that Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). Greens, Left, FDP and BVB/Free Voters all remain single-digit.

SPD Prime Minister Woidke could thus continue to govern after eleven years in office. Since 2019, he has led a coalition with the CDU and the Greens.

SPD narrowly defeated AfD

According to forecasts, the SPD 31 to 32 percent (2019: 23.5 percent). The AfDwhich the State Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies as suspected right-wing extremist cases, increases to 29 to 30 percent (23.5).

This is followed by the CDU with 11.5 to 12 percent (15.6) and the BSWwhich reaches 12 percent from a standing start. The Greens lose massively and end up at 4.5 to 5 percent (10.8). Linke also drops dramatically to 3 to 4 percent (10.7). BVB/Free Voters come to 2.5 to 2.7 percent (5.0). FDP is not shown separately.

Parties participating in the Five percent hurdle fail, still have a chance via the basic mandate clause: If they win at least one direct mandate, they enter the state parliament – with the number of seats according to their second vote result.

Tailwind for Olaf Scholz

According to forecasts, the SPD will have 30 to 33 seats in the state parliament (2019: 25 seats), the AfD 29 to 30 (23). The CDU will receive 12 seats (15). The BSW has 12 to 13 seats. According to ARD forecasts, the Greens will receive 5 seats (10), but according to ZDF figures they will fail to clear the five percent hurdle. BVB/Free Voters also remain below the critical mark (5). The Left Party will not make it into the state parliament for the first time since 1990 – then still as the PDS – (10). However, all three parties can still hope for a direct mandate. According to forecasts, voter turnout is 73 to 74 percent, significantly higher than in 2019 with 61.3 percent.

After recent poor results in the European elections and the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony, the SPD can now breathe a sigh of relief – also at the federal level. Chancellor Olaf Scholz can hope for a slight tailwind for the German federal election in a year. For the other two traffic light parties, the Greens and the FDP, the Brandenburg figures are bitter.

Complicated government formation in Brandenburg

Since reunification in 1990, the Social Democrats have consistently provided the Prime Minister in Brandenburg. During the election campaign, 62-year-old Woidke deliberately did not make major joint appearances with Chancellor Scholz – probably also because of the poor poll ratings of the Berlin traffic light coalition. Around 2.1 million people were called to vote – there are fewer eligible voters in the state than in Berlin.

Before the election, Woidke announced that he would only continue to hold government responsibility if the SPD became the strongest force – and he has now done that. However, forming a government is likely to be complicated. It is unclear whether the previous government partner, the Greens, will return to the state parliament – in which case a continuation of the red-black-green coalition would be possible. Woidke did not comment on his preferred partners before the election. The BSW could also be considered as a partner, but also BVB/Free Voters – if the latter win a direct mandate. The BSW had signaled during the election campaign that it did not want to participate in government at any price.

No prospects for the AfD

Despite its good performance, the AfD has no prospect of participating in government: no other party wants to work with it. The AfD’s rise in strength has also recently sparked concerns abroad about a shift to the right in Germany, for example among partners in NATO and the EU. The party had already performed strongly in the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony at the beginning of the month.

A special feature in Brandenburg that does not exist in any other German state is the cap on the number of seats in the state parliament – there can be a maximum of 110. If the AfD wins more direct mandates in this election than it is entitled to based on the second vote share, experts say it could happen that the other parties do not get enough compensatory mandates due to the limit on state parliament seats.

If the AfD were to get more than a third of the seats, it would have a so-called blocking minority: it would have to agree to decisions and elections that require a two-thirds majority. Constitutional court judges, for example, are elected by parliament with a two-thirds majority.

Sharp debates in the election campaign

The election campaign was dominated by a heated debate about limiting irregular migration, fuelled by the Islamist knife attack in Solingen which left three people dead. Brandenburg’s border with Poland is considered a migration hotspot nationwide, and many asylum seekers travel there despite stationary police checks.

Despite comparatively strong economic growth, low unemployment and the Tesla settlement, there has recently been a lot of dissatisfaction among voters in Brandenburg, according to surveys. There was particular discontent about the Ukraine policy of the federal government, which is supported by the traffic light parties SPD, Greens and FDP, which played into the hands of the BSW. The Wagenknecht party rejects, among other things, economic sanctions against Russia and arms deliveries to Ukraine.