Hezbollah, Limited operation or are we facing a new Gaza?

Israeli officials said that “there will be no long-term occupation” of Lebanon, but they refused to specify how long the operation will last. They explained that they will focus on the Lebanese villages along the border to eliminate “immediate threats,” including the ability Hezbollah to infiltrate the north of Israel.

On Tuesday, The Israeli army called to evacuate more than 20 towns in southern Lebanon because “he doesn’t want to harm them… Anyone who is near members, facilities and combat equipment of Hezbollah“He is putting his life in danger,” said Avichay Adraee, one of the IDF spokespersons, on the social network X.

Besides, The Israeli army announced that it had mobilized four more reservist brigades to be deployed in the north of the country.

“This will allow us to continue operational activities against the terrorist organization of Hezbollah and achieve operational objectives, above all the return, in complete safety, of the inhabitants of the north of Israel to their homes,” the army said in a statement.

On September 25, Israel had already mobilized two other reserve brigades to the north.

The AFP agency specified that an Israeli infantry brigade usually has between 1,000 and 2,000 soldiers, while a tank brigade includes a hundred vehicles.

This Tuesday the IDF also revealed that since October 8, when the exchange of fire with Hezbollahits troops have carried out dozens of “selective” raids in the south of Lebanon to dismantle “underground infrastructure and advanced weapons of Iranian origin.”

“These operations were carried out in order to dismantle the military capabilities of the Radwan Forces of Hezbollah and prevent them from carrying out their plan Conquer Galilee“, in the style of October 7, invading the north of Israel,” said the army spokesman. Daniel Hagari.

Hezbollah responded and said that it is a lie that Israel has crossed into Lebanon and entered some of its tunnels. ”These videos and photographs are very old and have no relation to the current military action on the Lebanese border,” the group said in a statement.

On the military level, Hezbollah claimed responsibility on Tuesday for launching a barrage of long-range Fadi-4 rockets against the air base Sde Dovlocated north of Tel Aviv, in central Israel, an area that it had already targeted on Monday, the EFE agency reported.

Hezbollah He assured that the attack was in response to the death of his leader Hassan Nasrallahkilled on Friday in a massive bombing of Israel’s headquarters in Beirut.

Before, Hezbollah had launched another wave of Fadi-4s against the base Glilotwhich belongs to the Unit 8200dedicated to military intelligence; and against a headquarters of the Mossad located on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.

In reaction to the new releases, Israel announced new restrictions on the civilian population in the center of the country, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Gatherings of more than 30 people outdoors and 300 indoors were prohibited, and schools and workplaces will only be able to remain open if they have a nearby bomb shelter, among other measures.

A new Gaza?

The limited military incursion into the Lebanon may end up becoming a massive occupation similar to what occurs in Gazawhere Israeli troops operate in a major offensive?

For the international analyst Enrique Banusdirector of the Institute of European Studies of the University of Piura, for what has been said so far by Israel A scenario similar to that in Gaza could be ruled out. “But to what extent you can trust what they have said, well that is something that will be seen. The stated objective is that the people who have had to evacuate from northern Israel can return to their homes with the peace of mind that they will not be bombed from Lebanon.”

““Hezbollah has suffered very hard blows and I don’t know what response capacity it has at this moment.”, Banús added to The Commerce.

“I hope that it is indeed a limited operation, something that is already quite painful. They are bombing Beirut too, not just neighborhoods where support for Hezbollah is massive.. So, on the one hand there is the operation with troops in the south and on the other hand the bombing continues until I believe it completely decapitates Hezbollah. A massive entry of Israeli soldiers into the south carries a lot of risk. I hope they don’t get into that dynamic.”noted Banús.

Is Israel at this moment ready for anything and will it not listen to requests for moderation like those usually made by the United States, its greatest ally? “Calls for restraint from Israel so far have not impressed him at all. “This also denotes that the persuasive force of the United States is at a low point, due to the weakness of the president, due to the proximity of the elections.”said the analyst.

Banús maintained that at this moment the prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu “is grown up” because after very catastrophic months in Gaza where it has not achieved the objective of the return of the Hamas hostages, it has now had dazzling successes.

“Israel had to recover its secret service, since the attack on October 7 was a total failure of the intelligence services, although there was information that something was being prepared, they simply sent it to the trash. “So now Netanyahu is grown up,” said.

Regarding the reaction of IranBanús explained that it is not known to what extent the Islamic Republic could be involved in the defense of Hezbollahsince the Iranian regime is not transparent in its actions.

“I have the impression that Nasrallah’s death and Israel’s other actions against Hezbollah have taken Iran by surprise. First there was the technological part with the beepers, then the very focused bombing against Hezbollah’s headquarters, with real-time information from the meeting of Hezbollah’s top commanders. That means they probably have someone undercover. or that they have an extraordinarily effective listening system, because it was a meeting many meters deep.”said Banús.

“And on the other hand the operation was with bombs of tremendous efficiency…, so this has also made a great impression on Iran and included There are those who say that the Iranians themselves fear being as infiltrated by Israel as Hezbollah is.. “It may also be that deep down Tehran does not want total confrontation,” held.