Biden is in a political minefield in the Middle East

The cards are currently being reshuffled in the Middle East. Israel’s targeted killing of powerful Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was a historic and painful blow to Iran. The USA also had unfinished business with him. A van filled with explosives killed 241 American soldiers in Beirut in 1983. Iran and Hezbollah are said to have been involved. Nevertheless, President Joe Biden made do with a short press statement. Nasrallah’s death is a “measure of justice” for his victims. The primary goal of his government is to de-escalate the conflicts in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip through diplomacy.

Even after Iran’s attack on Israel with 180 ballistic missiles on Tuesday, the American president did not appear in front of the cameras himself. Biden sent his national security adviser Jake Sullivan. He spoke of a “significant escalation” and threatened Iran with “serious consequences”. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears determined to launch a violent counterattack on targets in Iran, while at the same time pressing ahead with the invasion of southern Lebanon. Biden spoke out on Wednesday against an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, called for a proportionate response and held out the prospect of new economic sanctions against Iran. Clearly, the current escalation has created a scenario that Biden absolutely wanted to prevent – especially so shortly before the presidential election in November.

A deep “special relationship”

For months, Biden tried in vain to pressure the Israeli head of government into a ceasefire with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. He even accused Netanyahu of sabotaging an agreement in order to stay in power through the ongoing war. The American president also criticized him for the many civilian casualties caused by the heavy bombing in the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu is doing more harm to his country than helping it, Biden said. By killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniya in Tehran in July, Netanyahu essentially had his negotiating partner killed. Nevertheless, Biden and his administration continue to hold a protective hand over Israel. American warships intercepted some of Iran’s missiles on Tuesday. “We are proud of the measures we have taken to protect Israel,” Sullivan said on Tuesday.

But why can’t the most powerful man in the world impose his will on his closest ally in the Middle East? Compared to a small state with almost ten million inhabitants. How can this be explained?

First of all, Biden is actually not a major exception among American presidents. John F. Kennedy already spoke of a “special relationship” between the USA and Israel. This relationship is not primarily based on strategic interests, wrote the American security expert Anthony Cordesman in a 2010 analysis. The true motives are moral and ethical. On the one hand, it is a reaction to the Holocaust. On the other hand, as a democracy, Israel shares practically the same values ​​as the USA.

Biden is firmly anchored in this tradition. “Without Israel, no Jew in the world can feel safe,” said the American president last December. At the same time, support for Israel is also based on a broad consensus in the American Congress. A 2008 law requires the United States to ensure that Israel maintains a military advantage in its arms sales to the Middle East.

Growing divide between Republicans and Democrats

For many years, however, there was also a consensus in American foreign policy that the conflict in the Holy Land must be resolved through a two-state solution. Democratic and Republican presidents (Clinton, Bush and Obama) pushed for it, at least ostensibly. “Israel’s government must understand that its strategic relationship with the United States depends on how actively it seeks peace with the Palestinians,” Cordesman wrote.

Under Donald Trump, however, the Republicans largely abandoned this demand. Without Israeli compensation, he moved the American embassy to Jerusalem, recognized Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights and sent an advocate of the Jewish settler movement as ambassador to Israel. Netanyahu is exploiting the widening divide between Republicans and Democrats on foreign policy to play one party off against the other.

Biden is moving in a minefield when it comes to Middle East policy. Wherever he moves, trouble threatens. To force Netanyahu to de-escalate, he would have to seriously question military support for Israel. However, without a cross-party consensus, this would be a political suicide mission. In May, Biden suspended a shipment of heavy bombs to Israel. The Republicans immediately spoke of an arms embargo and a betrayal of Israel that threatened the existence and security of the country.

The aggression and terror of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi militia in Yemen and Iran lend legitimacy to the Republican allegations. Like Netanyahu, they also do not want a two-state solution. Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance” is waging a war of attrition against Israel. And the more threatening Israel’s enemies appear, the less likely the USA is to distance itself from the Israeli government. Perhaps it would be best for Biden to adopt a dual strategy, as outlined by journalist and Middle East expert Thomas Friedman in the New York Times in January. On the one hand, it is important to send a clear signal of deterrence to Iran and its militias, in order to then be able to push Israel again for a peace solution with the Palestinians. But so close to the presidential election and the end of his term in office, it is questionable whether Biden wants to take the risk of such a strategy.