Construction steel prices are about to increase

Last weekend, Hoa Phat (HPG) adjusted the selling price of construction steel for the second time in October. Specifically, CB240 rolled steel and D10 CB300 steel bars both increased by 100,000 VND to 13.58 and 13 respectively. 79 million VND per ton. Rebar steel alone has had its third consecutive price increase from mid-September until now with a margin of 460,000 VND per ton.

Other brands such as Viet Y, Viet Duc, Viet Sing, Kyoei Vietnam, VJS… also changed prices from the beginning of the month. Depending on the type, it will increase by 100,000-170,000 VND after each adjustment, with some types increasing continuously twice just in the last week.

So after recent price increases, construction steel is being sold around 13.5-14 million VND per ton. This price level is returning to the same level as in late July and early August, before the sharp decline that followed.

Data from financial solutions platform FinSuccess shows that brands with a large market share in the industry all recorded a recovery in consumption. Hoa Phat’s steel sales volume in 8 months reached more than 1.05 million tons, an increase of over 40% over the same period last year. Of which, domestic channels increased by nearly 22.5% and exports increased by nearly 54%.

Nam Kim Steel (NKG) has a consumption of more than 621,400 tons, an increase of more than 26%. And Ton Dong A (GDA) reached more than 588,300 tons, an increase of more than 16%.

On a general level, the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA) statistics that construction steel production in the first 8 months of this year reached 7.8 million tons, up 14% over the same period. Sales reached 7.77 million tons, up 15%. Of which, exports recorded a growth rate of 20.5% over the same period, reaching more than 1.1 million tons.

This unit believes that domestic goods volumes have recovered, but domestic steel demand is still low, not as expected in the construction season. In addition, competition to protect market share among factories, including imported goods, makes the market more difficult.

Forecasting the last quarter of the year, MB Securities (MBS) believes that domestic steel prices may recover due to reduced pressure from China and improved demand. Specifically, the recovery of Chinese steel prices narrows the gap and reduces the price advantage of steel imported from this country. On the demand side, improved housing supply and accelerated public investment disbursement have become growth drivers for domestic steel prices.

Since the fourth quarter, MBS expects domestic construction steel prices to recover 5% compared to the bottom in August. According to their estimates, construction steel prices could reach an average of 571 USD per ton (nearly 14 .2 million VND). By 2025, construction steel may increase by 7% thanks to demand growth and reduced pressure from China.