Strait of Hormuz – Iran’s trump card in the Middle East conflict

The Middle East conflict recently escalated dangerously, after Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles into Israeli territory, avenging the deaths of leaders of pro-Tehran militia groups in Tel Aviv air strikes. Israel warned that Iran had made a “big mistake” and was preparing to strike back at Tehran’s strategic goals.

Michael O’Hanlon, a defense and strategy expert at the Brookings Institution, US headquarters, does not rule out the possibility of Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities, but he thinks it is highly likely that Tel Aviv’s target is the target. is energy infrastructure, such as Iran’s largest oil port on Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf.

Iran has threatened to launch a “more fierce” counterattack if Israel attacks its strategic facilities. The Iranian armed forces may not target Israeli territory in the next response, because most of the shells were intercepted by Tel Aviv in recent raids.

Instead, Tehran can play a more powerful card, which is to block the Strait of Hormuz, an important maritime route of the Middle East as well as the world.

“If Israel really targets Iran’s oil economy, Tehran has no reason to ignore the rest and use the ‘trump card’ of the Strait of Hormuz,” O’Hanlon warned.

Hormuz is an inverted V-shaped strait located between Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman, connecting the Persian Gulf in the north with the Gulf of Oman, connecting to the Arabian Sea. The strait is 161 km long, the narrowest point is 33 km, the navigation channel in each direction is only about 3 km wide.

The Strait of Hormuz has water levels that are not too deep, making it very easy for cargo ships to be hit by mines if they are laid into the sea. If Iran decides to block this strait, they can easily use shore missiles or small warships to attack, preventing ships carrying oil, gas and strategic goods from passing through.

Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that 30% of the world’s oil supply and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production are transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the oil of Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, Kuwait and Iraq is exported along this sea route.

Richard Bronze, an analyst at energy data company Energy Aspects, describes the Strait of Hormuz as the “throat” of the global oil market. “Any disruption here will have a major impact on world oil supply and prices,” Mr. Bronze told Reuters. CNN.

“If the conflict escalates further, Iran could attack oil ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz with UAVs and missiles,” said Simone Tagliapietra, a researcher at the Bruegel policy institute, headquartered in Belgium. “The worst scenario is Tehran completely blockading Hormuz.”

If this scenario occurs, world oil prices will skyrocket to 150-200 USD per barrel, higher than when the war in Ukraine broke out, according to Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at energy research company Rystad Energy. Norwegian headquarters. “If the Strait blockade lasts 10 days, it will be a huge disruption. If it lasts a month, it could kill the global economy.”

Oil powers in the Middle East have almost no other options to export oil if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. Saudi Arabia and the UAE only export some oil via land pipelines, while Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain only sell oil via sea.

In fact, the Strait of Hormuz has never been completely blocked. During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, Iran dropped mines into the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iraq’s attack on Kharg Island. The war then became an oil tanker war, with both sides attacking 451 vehicles in the waters between the two countries, pushing up oil prices and ship insurance fees.

When Kuwaiti oil tankers began to hit Iranian mines, the US Navy intervened, sending warships to escort their ships through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. In 1988, a US warship was hit by a mine, causing Washington to launch a response campaign that caused heavy damage to the Iranian navy. The Iran-Iraq War ended in August 1988 thanks to a ceasefire brokered by the United Nations.

In 2011, Iran also threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz in response to sanctions from the West, but then abandoned the idea.

Observers say that Iran has historically hesitated to unleash its “trump card” Hormuz, because blockading the strait means Tehran’s oil exports are also affected.

Theo Financial TimesIran is exporting about 1.7 million barrels of oil a day, mainly from the country’s largest oil port on Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf. If Israel attacks Kharg Island and other Iranian oil and gas infrastructure, causing heavy damage, Tehran’s oil export activities will be paralyzed.

Iran will then no longer benefit from oil, pushing them to make more drastic decisions to increase pressure on Tel Aviv and the West. “Iran will question why others still have oil revenue, and they don’t?”, said Bjarne Schieldrop, an analyst at financial services group SEB, headquartered in Sweden. “This is the worst scenario and oil prices will skyrocket, possibly to $200 a barrel.”

Commander of IRGC maritime forces Alireza Tangsiri said in April that Iran had a plan to disrupt maritime operations through the Strait of Hormuz, but chose not to do so.

“The Strait of Hormuz is also important to us, because Iran transports most of its oil through this sea. Therefore, instability in Hormuz will also create consequences for us. At this time, we have not thought about it.” “But if things get worse, surely those with a hard-line stance will consider this scenario,” an Iranian official told Reuters. FT. “That is the worst scenario, if the counterattacks continue.”