The government accelerates the process of the budget law, which surprisingly will already be examined by the Council of Ministers tomorrow, together with the planning document and the advance law with urgent measures on economic and fiscal matters and in favor of local authorities . Last week the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti spoke of the intention to approve the Dpb tomorrow at Palazzo Chigi, on the last day for sending it to Brussels, and of the possibility that the budget law would also arrive in the Chamber on Sunday 20th .
But the indication was overlooked. The key points of the maneuver, which should be around 25 billion euros, have been defined: confirmation of the cut in the tax wedge for incomes up to 35 thousand euros and the reduction to three Irpef rates. These two measures alone, which the government intends to make structural, are worth around 15 billion. Then there is the hypothesis of widening the wedge cut to the middle class, for incomes up to 60 thousand euros, for which however between 2.5 and 4 billion would be needed.
Ultimately the extension could be reduced to incomes up to 40 thousand. Another cornerstone is the attempt to combat the demographic winter through an intervention on the single allowance or ad hoc relief. But resources are limited. Some resources could come from the good performance of tax revenues in 2024, but it appears more complex through the biennial composition with creditors. Then there is the question of a possible levy on large companies, starting with the banks, which has been agitating the majority for weeks where there are different sensitivities between the parties on this point: Forza Italia is against it, Lega and FdI have said they are more open to possibilities. The government’s mantra is that “there will be no new taxes”. In the text of the measure, qualified sources explain, a contribution from the banks is expected. There could also be linear cuts to the ministries, which the individual departments would be called upon to manage flexibly. For days the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti has been repeating that if individual ministries do not present a spending review on their own, he will have to “play the bad guy”, with cuts to all ministries with the exception of the health sector. And that the government’s approach to public finances remains “prudent” and “responsible”. “It was asked to go and carry out a check, ministry by ministry, of what the expenses may be, even unproductive or which can be postponed. Unfortunately, the numbers have to add up”, explains the Minister of the Environment and Energy Security Gilberto Pichetto Fratin.
For weeks the Mef has been working on simulations to find all the resources necessary to set up the maneuver, in a context of limited resources. The commitments made with the EU in the Structural Budget Plan approved in recent weeks call for a reduction in public debt, which has reached close to 3 trillion, with the aim of reducing the deficit/GDP ratio below 3% in 2026. If the EU will give the green light to spread the 7-year plan, Italy is expected to have a policy of reducing expenditure by around 13 billion per year. The macroeconomic and geopolitical context is not simple. The European economy is sending signs of weak or moderate growth. The discussion in Parliament of the Structural Budget Plan in recent days has revealed that presumably the 2024 growth, in light of the latest Istat update on public finances, may not reach the 1% in 2024 estimated by the government in the Def, which Bankitalia sees as 0.8%. “I think the government is right to call everyone to responsibility. Calling for collaboration means concerting the measure of exceptional contributions in the face of exceptional conditions that have occurred”, says the vice president of the Chamber Fabio Rampelli, of FdI. The opposition attacks by talking about a budget law that promises to be based on ‘tears and blood’ in the name of austerity. “The maneuver will be a frontispiece but there will not be a text. The only certain thing, given Giorgetti’s fake threats to ministers on expenses, is that there will be linear cuts which will translate into cuts to services and assistance”, urges the group leader of the Democratic Party in the Senate Francesco Boccia. “I proposed the tax on bank extra profits more than a year and a half ago, since then nothing has been done other than an ‘optional’ provision which brought zero euros to the state coffers”, recalls the M5s group leader in the Chamber Francesco Silvestri. While the secretary of +Europa Riccardo Magi states: “Meloni raises taxes because he owes us to finance his detention centers for migrants which will open this week in Albania. A shameful use of taxpayers’ money”.