Migration, the wars against Ukraine and in the Middle East as well as economic cooperation: these topics will be the focus when Chancellor Olaf Scholz is received by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul this afternoon. The Chancellor wants to deport more rejected asylum seekers to Turkey. But Erdogan also enters the conversation with wishes. Among other things, he wants German approval for the delivery of 40 Eurofighter fighter jets. Things could get confrontational when it comes to the Middle East.
More speed with deportations to Turkey
Scholz has promised to deport migrants without the right to stay “on a large scale”. Along with Syria and Afghanistan, Turkey is one of the countries with the largest numbers. According to the federal government, 15,789 Turkish citizens were required to leave the country at the end of September, 1,200 more than five months earlier. This compares to 441 deportations in the first half of the year. Now the pace should be increased. “We have now achieved that returns to Turkey can be carried out more quickly and effectively and that Turkey is taking back citizens who are not allowed to stay in Germany more quickly,” Interior Minister Nancy Faeser announced in an interview with the Funke media group in September.
Turkey could also be helpful on another issue. The federal government wants to deport criminals not only to Afghanistan, but also to Syria. To do this, she is looking for cooperation partners in the neighborhood. The Turkish government has contacts with Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad and occupies areas in the north of the country. Human rights activists accuse Turkey of already illegally deporting people there. The Turkish government rejects this.
Change of course in arms exports
There are signs that Germany is changing course when it comes to arms exports. In 2016, the federal government under then Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) imposed a partial arms export ban in response to the Turkish invasion of northern Syria. Since then, approvals for the NATO partner have only been granted very sporadically. At the end of September, however, it became known that the Federal Security Council had approved three German defense companies to supply more than a hundred guided missiles, 28 torpedoes and other armaments for the Turkish Navy.
Political scientist Yasar Aydin from the Science and Politics Foundation calls this a logical consequence of the current geopolitical situation. It is difficult to deny Turkey arms supplies when it comes to building up the Turkish navy, which forms a counterweight to the Russian one in the Black Sea, he says.
But there are also Turkish wishes for the air force. Turkey and Great Britain are currently negotiating the delivery of Eurofighter fighter jets. Germany is involved in the production and would have to give its consent. At the EU summit in Brussels, Scholz at least agreed that negotiations would take place. But that is not yet approval. “But of course we are also clear about the question of whether we would stop it or not,” said the Chancellor. “But this is very early on, and that’s why we said: Negotiate once.”
How helpful are Erdogan’s contacts with Putin?
For several weeks now, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been increasingly promoting another Ukraine peace conference, in which Russia will also take part. Erdogan could be helpful. He regularly holds talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and has hosted indirect negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in the past. Turkey also mediated the now abandoned corridor for the export of Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea.
Middle East conflict issue: Erdogan accuses Germany of double standards
The issue of the Middle East holds greater potential for conflict. While Germany stands firmly on Israel’s side, Erdogan calls the country a “terrorist state.” On the other hand, he describes Hamas as a “liberation organization” and maintains close contacts with the terrorist organization, which also maintains networks in Turkey.
The Turkish president recently accused Germany of double standards. The demand for a ceasefire and the simultaneous delivery of weapons to Israel are incompatible. Scholz has announced that he will continue to provide Israel with weapons. Between March and August there were no more war weapons exports from Germany.