Israel after the death of Sinwar: negotiate or continue fighting?

 

As so often in recent weeks, Benjamin Netanyahu addressed his people in a televised address on Thursday evening. After his army killed the entire leadership of Hezbollah, including its boss Hassan Nasrallah, within a few weeks, Israel’s prime minister should now have a certain routine in announcing successes.

But with the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, Israel has not only succeeded in eliminating another of its prominent enemies. The architect of the October 7 massacre has been considered the number one target of Israel’s security services for the past 12 months – and his elimination as one of the goals of the war in Gaza.

There are still over a hundred hostages in Gaza

With his death, the question now arises: What happens next in the destroyed coastal strip? Netanyahu didn’t let anyone look at his cards at first. The war in Gaza is not over yet, he said. At the same time, however, he suggested that Sinwar’s death represented at least “the beginning of the end” of the bloody campaign.

Up to 101 Israeli hostages are still in the hands of Hamas or other groups. Representatives of relatives of the hostages therefore hastened to immediately demand that negotiations be started to release their kidnapped family members. “The government must act now and reach an agreement as quickly as possible,” a representative told Reuters.

However, it is questionable whether Netanyahu will agree to this. The prime minister said that rescuing the remaining hostages was now Israel’s top priority. How he intends to pursue this goal is unclear. So far, all attempts to free the remaining abductees through an agreement have failed. That was due to Sinwar – but also to Netanyahu himself, who repeatedly made the negotiations more difficult with new demands.

No reason to stop fighting

In addition, the Prime Minister, who is currently riding a wave of military success, is likely to feel confirmed in his tough course with the killing of Sinwar. Accordingly, he gave the Palestinians in Gaza a kind of ultimatum on Thursday: anyone who released hostages and laid down their weapons would be spared, he promised. “But we will settle accounts with those who mistreat them.”

However, it is unclear how many of the hostages are still alive – and in whose hands they are. Because Hamas – which has announced that it will continue fighting after the death of its leader – has lost control of Gaza. Most observers actually assumed that Sinwar was holed up in a bunker with the deportees. Instead, he was killed in a battle outside the Hamas tunnels.

For Netanyahu’s right-wing religious coalition partners, the death of the person primarily responsible for the massacre on October 7th is by no means a reason to stop fighting. The goal is the total surrender of Hamas, said Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. This would mean that Israel’s army would continue to be involved in a guerrilla war in the destroyed coastal strip, which could endanger the lives of the remaining deportees.

Biden calls for a ceasefire

In addition, Israel, which has now begun a ground offensive against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, is threatened with a protracted two-front war with unclear objectives. Neither the Lebanese Shiite militia nor Hamas in Gaza behave like regular armies that lay down their arms after the death of their leaders. Instead, their fanatical fighters threaten to continue fighting despite all setbacks.

Israel’s allies hope that after Sinwar’s death they can at least put an end to the deaths in Gaza. The brutal war, which has cost the lives of tens of thousands of civilians, is particularly a burden for Americans in the final stages of the election campaign. US President Joe Biden congratulated Netanyahu on Sinwar’s killing. At the same time, he warned that it was now time to end the war in Gaza with a ceasefire.

Recently the two countries have repeatedly clashed. The Americans recently threatened Netanyahu with a review of military aid when he prepared to block aid to the battered civilian population in the newly embattled north of Gaza. Netanyahu did give in. But once again it became clear how deep the rifts between the allies have become.