President Maia Sandu seeks re-election against one of her main rivals, Alexandr Stoianoglo
Around 2.5 million citizens are called to the polls this Sunday in Moldova to elect their next president and to vote in a referendum that could bring the country closer to joining the European Union amid growing polarization and amid complaints for electoral interference by Russia.
The future of the former Soviet country is at a crossroads: Moldova must decide whether to advance on its path towards the EU or, on the contrary, strengthen its ties with Moscow. The referendum is thus emerging as a barometer of pro-European sentiment at a time when the war in Ukraine has accelerated the community aspirations of several countries, including kyiv itself.
The presidential elections will take place a few days after the Moldovan Police have dismantled a criminal organization linked to the Kremlin to influence the electoral results that managed to recruit 130,000 citizens through bribes in exchange for voting for pro-Russian candidates.
The plot was condemned last week by the European Parliament in a resolution in which they demanded new sanctions against Moscow from member states and asked countries that host fled oligarchs, such as the opposition Ilan Shor – currently in Israel – to be extradited to stand trial in Moldova.
Shor’s party, outlawed by the Moldovan Constitutional Court, was behind the demonstrations that broke out in early 2023 against the Government, which was in favor of joining the European bloc, due to the high price of gas.
SANDU IN FRONT OF STOIANOGLO
Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu, is running for re-election and leads the latest polls with 36 percent of the vote. The pro-European Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), founded during the 2015 anti-government protests, currently has 62 seats in Parliament.
Sandu’s mandate, however, has had ups and downs since she took office in December 2020. Her former prime minister, Natalia Gavrilita, resigned in February 2023 due to the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine, which triggered inflation in the country and collapsed institutions due to the arrival of thousands of Ukrainian refugees across the border.
His main rival, Alexandr Stoianoglo, is running for election under the acronym of the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM), a formation led by the opposition Igor Dodon – president of the country between 2016 and 2020 – traditionally seen as pro-Russian and has 18 seats in Parliament.
The popularity of Stoianoglo, former attorney general of Moldova, has been further undermined by a case of corruption, illicit enrichment and abuse of power that broke out in October 2021 with his arrest during his time as attorney general.
Sandu has accused Stoianoglo, whom he removed from office in September 2023, of being the Kremlin’s candidate, while the PSRM presidential hopeful – who remains second in the polls with 10 percent of the vote – He claims that the Moldovan president has launched a political hunt against him.
The scandal adds to other PAS accusations, such as its alleged links with the oligarch Veaceslav Platon, whom it released after he was sentenced to 18 years in prison for money laundering from Russia in the well-known ‘Laundromat’ case, a scheme of laundering globally through banks in Moldova and Latvia.
The pro-European party pointed out Stoianoglo for his alleged relationship with the Russian-Moldovan oligarch because he had allegedly registered several Ukrainian companies in the name of his wife, although the PAS could not prove the accusations and the European Court of Human Rights ruled in 2023 that his right to a fair trial had been violated.
Apart from Stoianoglo, the pro-Russian Renato Usatii, former mayor of the city of Balti, is running for election, and has managed to place third in the polls with 7.5 percent of the votes despite the fact that his party, the conservative Our Party , does not have representation in Parliament.
A fourth candidate, Irina Vlah, the former governor of the autonomous region of Gagauzia, has managed to surpass the 3 percent threshold. His political stance aspires to be neutral towards a pro-Russian and pro-European Moldova, personified in Sandu.
ACCESSION TO THE EUROPEAN UNION
The European Commission set a total of nine recommendations for Chisinau to become a member of the EU, including reforming the justice system to guarantee judicial independence, fighting corruption or countering the influence of oligarchs on a political, economic and social level.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 prompted countries such as Georgia, which was also part of the former Soviet Union, to apply for membership in an attempt to position themselves against the Kremlin’s sphere of influence.
Moldova presented its request on March 3 of that same year and three months later the community bloc opened negotiations under Sandu’s mandate. The pro-Russian opposition responded to the Government’s move with the creation of a coalition called Victoria whose main purpose was to denounce accession to the EU.
If Moldovan citizens give the ‘green light’ to the European path in the referendum, several amendments to the Constitution will be implemented to reflect that Chisinau aligns itself with the constitutive and founding treaties of the EU.
THE QUESTION OF TRANSNISTRIA
Transnistria is an enclave located on the other bank of the Dnieper River, with a majority Russian and Ukrainian population, which proclaimed its independence in 1990 from the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic fearing that, due to the rise of nationalism, Moldova would join Romania.
The proclamation triggered a war that would last two years and culminate in a ceasefire agreement signed in July 1992 by Russian President Boris Yeltsin and Moldovan President Mircea Snegur. In this context, the separatist authorities ruled out proposals for autonomy within Moldova.
On September 17, 2006, Transnistrians went to vote in a referendum promoted by the then president of the separatist region Igor Smirnov. 96.62 percent of the population rejected Transnistria being reintegrated into Moldova, while 98 percent supported the possibility of it remaining independent and later joining Russia.
The international community did not recognize the results, so its status is still to be resolved. Other political initiatives, such as the Kozak Memorandum – which proposed establishing an asymmetric federal State – also failed years before.
Although today it is, ‘de facto’, an independent country that has its own institutions, it is still part of Moldova. The case of Transnistria – only recognized by other separatist territories such as Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno Karabakh – is classified as a frozen post-Soviet conflict.
Moscow’s influence in Transnistria, which has Russian troops on its territory, has intensified with the invasion of Ukraine. Moldova denounced the opening of polling stations in the breakaway region during Russia’s March presidential election, calling it a violation of its sovereignty.
Despite growing concern from Chisinau, Sandu has left the door open for Moldova to join the European Union without resolving the Transnistria issue, further complicating the political situation in the region.