Israel’s retaliation against Iran: symbolic action instead of escalation

There had long been speculation about what the Israeli counterattack against Iran would look like – and when it would take place. The time had come in the night from Friday to Saturday. According to the army, Israeli warplanes carried out several waves of attacks against targets in the Islamic Republic. The airstrikes, reportedly involving dozens of fighter jets, are in retaliation for the massive volley of missiles that Iran fired at Israel almost a month ago.

On October 1st, Tehran’s Revolutionary Guards fired almost 200 ballistic missiles at Israel. According to their own statements, they were taking revenge for, among other things, the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas leader Ismail Haniya. Although the violent attack only caused material damage in Israel, the Israeli government vowed immediate retaliation.

Was Tehran warned?

It is still unclear what exactly was hit during the counterattacks that were carried out during the night and how extensive the damage was. According to the Israeli army, the attacks were aimed at military targets. These are said to have included factories for the production of ballistic missiles and anti-aircraft facilities. Iranian officials, in turn, spoke of attacks near Tehran and two provinces in the west of the country, on the border with Iraq. Iran confirmed on Saturday that there had been “limited damage.” According to the Iranian news agency Irna, two soldiers are said to have died.

Although it was Israel’s largest-ever attack on Iranian territory, there appeared to be relief among many observers and Israel’s Western allies on Saturday. So this counterattack obviously does not represent the feared escalation that would finally cause the situation in the Middle East to spiral out of control and could lead to a continued missile war between Israel and Iran.

The regime in Tehran has recently made it clear again and again that it will not tolerate attacks on its nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure and will respond to them with the utmost severity. However, none of these targets were hit last night. Israel has also refrained from attacking regime facilities and the Islamic Republic’s centers of power.

Instead, according to American media, the Israelis apparently warned Tehran about third countries. All of this suggests that the overnight strikes may have been a symbolic response rather than a prelude to another, even larger round of hostilities between the two countries, which have been teetering toward war for months. In any case, Israel’s army warned Iran not to escalate further in the future.

Pressure from Washington

The limited attack shows that, despite all the aggressive rhetoric and threatening gestures of the last few weeks, Israel currently appears to have no interest in another exchange of blows with Iran. There are likely to be several reasons for this: The Americans have recently repeatedly made it clear to their allies that an open war between Israel and Iran shortly before the presidential elections would not be in their interests.

Observers assume that Washington has therefore now put great pressure on Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to refrain from retaliating too harshly – even though hardliners in Israel spoke of a “historic opportunity” to paralyze the Iranian nuclear program. In addition, documents relating to Israeli retaliation plans were recently leaked to the press in America, of all places. This could have taken additional wind out of the sails of the planned operation.

In addition, Israel is also aware of its own borders. The small country’s army is already waging a two-front war against Hezbollah and Hamas. A war with Iran – which, in contrast to Lebanon and Gaza, is thousands of kilometers away – would tie up a lot of resources and would hardly be possible without American help. However, the USA has repeatedly signaled that it does not want to be drawn into such an armed conflict at this point in time.

Iran plays down the attacks

Already last spring, when the shadow war between Jerusalem and Tehran that had been going on for years threatened to escalate, Israel stepped on the brakes. At that time, it only responded to a previously announced missile and drone attack from the Islamic Republic with a symbolic threatening gesture: a single air defense system was hit near the Iranian city of Isfahan. It was Israel’s first direct attack on Iranian territory.

Now the counterattack is larger, but still extremely limited. Nevertheless, a new stage has been reached in this exchange of blows: for the first time, Israel has carried out an open attack and, according to previous information, has operated in Iranian airspace for several hours.

However, it is questionable whether Iran will now let the matter rest. Initial reports from state-affiliated Iranian media – which deliberately downplay the Israeli attack as weak and ineffective – at least suggest so. However, the Iranians have had their backs to the wall for a long time. Israel’s blitzkrieg against Hezbollah in Lebanon has deprived them of their most effective weapon – the Shiite militia was considered the crown jewel in Iran’s deterrent system. In particular, more radical cadres within the Tehran regime are demanding decisive action to restore their own deterrence.

Nevertheless, the economically weakened regime in Tehran is also unlikely to have any interest in expanding hostilities. The newly elected President Masud Pezeshkian was recently on a charm offensive towards the West and the Gulf states. In addition, the aging revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei must take care of his own succession plan in order to keep his regime – which has recently come under domestic political pressure – stable.