Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump: The Last Round | commentary

There is only one week left until the day of the United States presidential election, and as expected, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump More stressed and trying harder, first of all to hurt each other and only then to convince why the American voter should prefer them. They are fighting for every vote because all polls indicate a mathematical or statistical tie between them. This tie was also maintained in all seven swing states that will decide the election. This is the closest election in modern US history.

The number of voters who preferred early voting by mail or at the polling stations, which states already opened a few weeks ago, has already reached more than 50 million. This is a record compared to previous elections. In many countries, this method of voting can be continued, except by mail, until election day. In the 2020 election, Trump asked his supporters to avoid early voting, claiming that Democrats were “rigging” such votes. This year, when he noticed mass early voting by Democratic voters, he changed his mind and called on his supporters to follow suit. It is still likely that the majority in early voting will be Democrats, while on election day, more Republicans will vote.

The mass early voting will affect everything that happens until and after election day. The number of eligible voters in the United States today stands at 244 million. In the 2020 elections, the overall voter turnout was 66.6%, relatively very high. If this rate is maintained, approximately 162 million citizens will vote in this year’s elections. If by next Tuesday, more than 50 million vote, early voting will include almost a third of voters.

Of course, those who have already voted will not be affected by the election propaganda that has been rampant in recent days. Early voting ballots are counted only at the end of election day and not before. Therefore, and due to their scope, it will take more time to count them. If at the end of election day, the results are close, it is possible that the announcement of the winner will be delayed by a day or more and there will probably be many appeals and recounts.

In recent days, both candidates are trying an interesting strategy, to move voters from their opponent’s natural sectors to their side. This strategy was successful in the 1980 and 1984 elections when Ronald Reagan transferred to his side Democrats who were not satisfied with their candidate at the time, Jimmy Carter. They were called “Reagan’s Democrats”. Harris is trying to recruit moderate Republicans who oppose Trump’s personality and policies, voters in rural districts and even devout evangelicals, important supporters of Trump, who are unhappy with his rough personal behavior.

Trump appeals to men, including Hispanics and African-Americans, and Muslims, most of whom are supposed to be in Harris’s camp. He exploits the patriarchal feeling of men who think that a woman’s place is in the kitchen and not in the White House. Polls show that among Harris supporters, women support her far more than men. Her headquarters noticed the problem and spread a slogan: there was a man – the color Harris. It is possible that the large disparity between women and men in the Harris camp indicates that American society is not yet ready to accept a woman president.

Trump is taking advantage of Muslims’ criticism of the Biden-Harris administration’s support for Israel and is trying to attract them to him. Michigan, an important swing state, is home to about 240,000 Muslims, the highest concentration of them in the United States. In the 2020 election, Biden beat Trump in Michigan by just 155,000 votes. The Muslims realized they could decide the outcome of the Michigan election.

Some want revenge on Harris, some say they will vote for Trump because only he can pressure Netanyahu to stop the war in Gaza, and only he can bring peace to the entire region. Others who actually despise Trump, think long term. They say they will vote for him, because they are willing to endure his difficult second term, just to prove to any democratic candidate in the future that if he supports Israel, he will lose the election. If the Muslims follow through on their threats, Harris will have a hard time winning in Michigan.

About 450,000 Jews live in Pennsylvania. In the 2020 election, Biden won Pennsylvania by a margin of only 83,660 votes. There are Jews here who are not satisfied with the statements and promises of Harris that she and her nominee for Vice President Tim Walz made in order to appease Muslims, and keep them in her camp. It is interesting to mention that Harris decided to give up Josh Shapiro, the popular Jewish governor of Pennsylvania, who was a candidate to be elected as his deputy, mainly because he supported Israel. This is how a struggle developed in recent days between the “Muslim voice” in the state of Michigan and the “Jewish voice” in the state of Pennsylvania, two of the critical swing states.

All the standard indicators of the election, except for one, point to an almost complete tie between Harris and Trump. A study revealed that whoever raises much more money, wins the elections. This happened in all the election systems held since 2000, with the exception of 2016, in which Hillary Clinton Raised more money, but lost to Trump. From January 2023 until now, Harris has raised over a billion dollars, while Trump has less than half that amount. This gap widens even more when it became known just this week that Michael Bloomberg the former mayor of New York, donated $50 million to Harris. According to the contribution index, Harris wins. By other measures Trump has a better chance. A week before election day, everything is open and any result is possible.