The phrase of “one man, one vote” (which today would change “man” to “person”) with which universal suffrage used to be defined It makes no sense in the complicated US electoral system to elect president. A system that also requires prior registration to be able to deposit the ballot. What counts there is not the direct vote, but the compromisers or electors assigned to each state for the Electoral college, an institution created by the ‘fathers of the country’ that remains in force despite criticism.
Each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia (where the capital, Washington, is located) are assigned a number of delegates equal to their representatives in the Lower House and the Senate. All of them, except Nebraska and Maine, which also take into account who wins in each electoral district, give all their votes to the party that won their state.
Hence, if, for example, Trump wins in a common state for Republicans like Texas, it will not matter the number of votes that Kamala Harris has obtained there. All the votes in the state will go to the president. The same will happen in California, a fiefdom of the Democrats, who will not add to the New York tycoon’s box.
Carlota García Encina, principal researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute, explains in her article ‘Elections in the United States: campaign, transition and investiture’ how the Electoral College model, which is only used in presidential elections and not in legislative elections, was outlined by first time in Constitution of 1787: “It was explicitly rejected that the popular vote elect the presidency because the founding fathers they didn’t trust voters to make a wise choice“.
Each state has two votes in the Electoral College, regardless of its population, plus additional votes for its number of members in the House of Representatives. Hence the small and medium stateslike Vermont or Wyoming, have a more pronounced representation than states as populated as, precisely, California or Texas.
He aim of Republicans and Democrats on November 5 is to reach the 270 votersthe simple majority of the Electoral College, which is made up of 538 members. The majority of states do not usually change their color (blue for Democrats; red for Republicans), except seven that attract all attention as they do not in principle have the vote decided and which are usually called hinge states or ‘swing states’. ‘, each one with its own characteristics and priorities. In these elections, the candidates do not in any case surpass the other by a difference greater than two percentage points.
The seven hinge states or ‘swing states’:
Pennsylvania (19 delegates):
Pennsylvania is considered one of the most decisive swing states in these elections. It has 19 votes in the Electoral College and is the most populated among the doubtful ones. Although he normally voted for the Democratic Party, in 2016 he changed the trend and decided on Donald Trump, something that changed four years later. Rural roots coexist with big cities like Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.
Georgia (16 delegates):
Georgia, the state that Trump wanted to battle in a tortious manner in 2020, will have all eyes on it and its 16 delegates. The very close results of four years ago have led the two candidates to visit their territory several times during the campaign. The Democrats have done their best to appeal to the African American vote, with the polls favorable to Trump.
North Carolina (16 delegates):
North Carolina has 16 electoral votes and the recent memory of Hurricane Helene, which killed nearly 100 people last September in the town of Asheville and destroyed a quarter of this state. A tragedy, about which there were several conspiracy theories and that will most likely mark the process. The middle class has been the target of the candidates.
Michigan (15 delegates):
The state of Michigan has fifteen delegates in the Electoral College. In 2016, it was Trump who took the votes by just 11,000 ballots, which Biden surpassed in 2020 with 154,000. Although Kamala Harris began her career in the polls by winning in this state, Trump rose from September onwards and came dangerously close to the current vice president. According to the New York Times/Sienna poll of those dates, the issues of most concern in this state were the economy (24%), abortion (17%) and immigration (14%), the first and third objectives of the Republican candidate in that state in the final stretch of the campaign.
Arizona (11 delegates):
The border with Mexico is one of the big issues in the state of Arizona. Historically Republican, the state is turning in recent times due to the increase in the population of Latino origin, currently it is 31%, and issues such as the right to abortion, on which there will be a consultation in these elections. The issue of most concern is immigration (31%), the economy (20%) and housing (11%). Arizona has 11 electoral votes.
Wisconsin (10 delegates):
Wisconsin, belonging to the so-called ‘Rust Belt’, the manufacturing belt that entered into crisis starting in the 1970s, has 10 electoral votes and a Democratic past that Donald Trump questioned in 2016, although Biden recovered it in the elections of 2020. The economy and the right to abortion are the issues that most concern the inhabitants of that state. The population over 18 years old is 86% white, 5% black and 4% Hispanic. Nearly 60% of registered voters opposed the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade that allowed the termination of pregnancy.
Nevada (6 delegates):
The state that is home to Las Vegas, which has six electoral votes, has recently been pending the approval of a lithium mine that has finally gone ahead. Inflation and housing prices are the pressing problems of a state that is still suffering from the effects of the pandemic. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the country, about 5.5%. Although Nevada has not voted Republican since 2004, experts consider it to be a ‘purple’ state, neither red nor blue, a mix of the two tendencies. Independents also play a prominent role.
After 5-N and after the certification of the votes, the 538 voters will go to the capitals of their states (an appointment set for the Monday following the second Wednesday of December, after the elections are held. This year will be the November 25) and there they will vote for the candidate (or candidates, in the case of Nebraska and Maine) who has decided their state. The next step is the session at the Capitol in which those electoral votes are counted and the result of the election is declared (since the mid-20th century, the January 6 at 1 p.m.). The vice president, in this case Vice President Kamala Harris, will preside over the session and announce the name of the next commander in chief. He January 20 The transfer of powers and the investiture will take place.