Polymarket and the US election: Come on, let’s gamble the world

On internet betting portals such as Polymarket, Trump is unassailably ahead; this is supposedly more informative than classic surveys. There is reason to be skeptical that this is true.

Donald Trump is unassailably ahead in the forecasts. The current probability that he will move into the White House is 65 percent. The numbers do not come from reputable pollsters, but from a website called Polymarket, a kind of online universal betting exchange. They are therefore not collected according to scientific criteria, but rather according to market criteria. Some people therefore consider them more credible.