Although the United States elections will be held this Tuesday, November 5, the news of the winner will take a little longer.
When will the winner of the elections be known?
It’s impossible to know for sure. In 2016 it was known in a few hours, but in 2020 there was no winner until Saturday, four days later. In 2000, the legal dispute dragged on for weeks. The counts are generally slow, even if machines are used to deposit the ballots, because there are many votes and there is no uniform voting or counting system like in Spain. Usually, the same morning from the 5th to the 6th, the results of the majority of States are known, but not necessarily all. The country also has different time zones, with a three-hour difference from coast to coast. In addition, it is assumed that this year there may be many lawsuits, litigation, challenges and fights that delay the result in key states. So if the surveys are right, it could take days. Or weeks if the possible litigation ended in the Supreme Court, as in 2000.
But is there any more concrete estimate of the count?
All eyes are on the seven pivotal states: Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. And on the tail end, Iowa too since the weekend. Georgia counts quickly and has a lot of early voting, but in 2020 it took two weeks to find a winner because there were very serious recounts and lawsuits. North Carolina has always been very fast and in the last two elections it had a winner before midnight local time (06:00 in Spain). In 2020, however, it took a long time to declare a winner because Covid triggered the vote by mail, which had additional days to arrive. Pennsylvania, perhaps the most important state four years ago, is going very slowly, starts counting ballots later than the rest, has many provisional votes to review and litigation is expected. In 2020, AP declared Biden the winner on Saturday, four days later, because although the count had not finished, it considered that there was no way for Trump to come back.
And what happens in the rest?
In 2020, Michigan had counted half the votes by midnight, and the Greek vote was finished the next morning. If there are no surprises, on Wednesday afternoon, local time, it could be decided. Wisconsin expects to have final results on Wednesday morning, since it has a law that requires no interruptions to sleep. Arizona will be, along with Pennsylvania, the one that will take the longest, according to experts. Days, probably. Because of the counting system and because there are so many things to decide on (the ballots take up several pages) it will take a long time.
What are the usual deadlines until the president is sworn in?
In many states, counties have one week to certify the results. The state secretaries, 10 more days. And the governors must do the same before November 23. The Executive of each State prepares a Certificate of Verification (Ascertainment) that includes the names of all the people on the lists, the number of votes and the names of those who have been designated as voters. Your Status Verification Certificate is sent to NARA (National Archives and Records Administration) as part of the official presidential election records. The meeting of the electors takes place on the first Tuesday after the second Wednesday in December after the general election, which will be on the 17th. The electors meet in their respective states, where they cast their votes for president and vice president on separate ballots . The votes of your State’s electors are recorded on a Certificate of Vote, which is sent to Congress, where they are counted in a joint session on January 6 of the following year. Typically, the vice president, in her capacity as president of the Senate, presides over the recount in a strictly formal manner and announces the results. The president-elect is sworn in and sworn into office on January 20.
What happens if there is a tie in the college and no candidate has 270 voters?
There has never been a tie of 269 electors, but in 1800 there was a tie between Jefferson and Burr. The scenario in 2024 is not at all probable but not very twisted either. For example, if Harris wins the states that Biden won in 2020, except Michigan and Pennsylvania. Or if Harris wins North Carolina and Trump wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada. There would also be a tie if Harris wins the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and Trump wins the other four hinge states plus Nebraska’s 2nd district, which covers Omaha and generally votes Democratic. In that case, the decision on the future president would be made by the new Congress. There would be a vote, but it would not be based on the number of seats or size. Each of the 50 states would have one vote, and the one with the most state delegations would win. Everything indicates that it would be Trump, since according to polls he will prevail in more states.
Who is the favorite in the presidential elections?
With surveys it is impossible to know. They reflect a practically perfect tie, both nationally and in the seven pivotal states of this 2024: Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. There are all kinds of theories, estimates and models, which lean towards one side or the other depending on which factor is weighted. Iowa has become the protagonist in recent days, due to an unexpected survey that places Harris three points ahead in a state that was assumed to be safe for the Republicans.
And who will win the House of Representatives and the Senate?
Right now, Republicans have a majority in the House of Representatives, while Democrats control the Senate, both by very narrow margins. Polls suggest the two parties could swap control of each chamber, with Democrats taking back the House of Representatives and Republicans taking back the Senate. With conservatives all but certain to carry West Virginia, Montana could solidify the party’s path to a Senate majority. Ohio or Maryland are also in dispute. In the House of Representatives, half a dozen New York districts probably hold the key.
What is Donald Trump going to do if he loses?
Trump has never accepted that he lost the 2020 election. He continues to say in his rallies, interviews and even debates that it was a “robbery” and that he won by a landslide. And no one in his party dares to say out loud that they lost, so as not to unleash his anger. This Sunday, at an event in Pennsylvania, he was very clear: “Honestly, I should not have left” the White House. “We did so well, we had a great… Now, at every polling station there are hundreds of lawyers.” So most analysts believe that on Tuesday he will declare, in some way, that he is the winner again.
Is there precedent for a president having had two non-consecutive terms?
Only one: Grover Cleveland won the popular vote in 1884, 1888 and 1892, and it is the only case to date. If Trump won he would be the second in history.