While waiting for the US vote, the dollar is losing ground

The greenback loses ground on the day of the US presidential elections, which according to the latest polls sees a substantial head-to-head between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. At the end of the morning the American currency lost 0.19% against the euro at 1.0897 dollars and 0.19% against the pound, at 1.2983 dollars.

Today in the United States it is decided who wins the race for the White House, at the end of a bitter electoral campaign marked by multiple twists, with two assassination attempts against Trump and the replacement of Joe Biden with Harris in the race.
The dollar index, which compares the currency of the United States with a basket of six coins, it stood at 103.75, down 0.50% from Friday’s close.

The greenback had previously been supported by the prospect of potentially inflationary policies envisioned by Trump, while bitcoin had benefited from the former president’s pro-cryptocurrency stance.

Polling places have already opened in East Coast states and beyond 82 million votes were cast early or sent by post. However, it may take several hours or even days to establish the final result.

In the event of Trump’s victory, the dollar could emerge “slightly stronger”, estimates Brooks, while “if Harris wins and if Congress is divided between Republicans and Democrats”, the American currency is likely to “fall in the coming days” .

For its part, the onshore yuan, traded in mainland China, fell just 0.04% against the greenback, to 7.1049 yuan per dollar. Beijing authorities have announced measures to stimulate economic activity, including rate cuts and easing restrictions on property purchases. But many analysts have criticized for the moment the absence of a quantification of the overall stimulus package.

The long-awaited announcement could come on Friday, after the meeting of the standing committee of the National People’s Congress, the main body of Parliament. The renminbi could therefore benefit “in the short term” from a “new tailwind”, estimates Volkmar Baur, analyst at Commerzbank.