Experts predict that exports in 2025 will have many challenges, putting pressure on next year’s economic growth on public investment and domestic consumption.
This information was shared by Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung, Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Vietnam, during the Vietnam Investment Forum organized by Vietnambiz on November 8.
Import-export is one of the big driving forces contributing to growth in 2024, but according to ADB experts, it will be difficult to maintain good growth momentum next year.
“This year, exports will grow rapidly thanks to the low base of 2023. However, the general world trend is cooling, so we will not find export growth for next year,” Mr. Hung commented.
According to him, the US administration’s move under President Donald Trump could also create challenges for exports. “Mr. Trump’s policies say, it is difficult for us to assess to what extent it will be carried out. But this will certainly affect world trade. Therefore, export is a closed sector. making a major contribution to Vietnam’s economy, will also face challenges,” Mr. Hung analyzed.
Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung, Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Vietnam spoke at the November 8 Conference. Image: Vietnambiz.
This has also been expressed by experts in some recent events. Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), commented that Mr. Trump was once the US president, so he could see a tough approach to trade, such as the trade war with China and the High tariffs on goods with US allies. While campaigning, Trump called for escalating tariff measures, such as increasing tariffs on Chinese goods to 60%, punitive taxes on 200% of vehicles imported from Mexico, along with a general tariff of 10% on all goods. imported into America.
In addition, experts also mentioned a small risk that if Vietnam is considered a gateway for Chinese goods to enter the US, the US government may try to block this loophole and impose tariffs on goods from Vietnam.
“Accordingly, in addition to promoting foreign relations advantages, we also need to focus on stimulating domestic demand, so that growth momentum becomes more balanced,” Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung commented. Besides, another important driving force for growth in the coming time, according to him, lies in the hands of the Government, coming from the disbursement of public investment and budget spending.
Mentioning another important factor from the perspective of foreign investment flowing into Vietnam, Mr. Le Anh Tuan, Director of Dragon Capital Investment Division, shared the fact that 13 out of 15 industries in the stock market experienced investment growth. negative in recent years. He believes that the problem of negative growth is not a decline in investor confidence but a lack of “greed”.
“I think that in order for stimulus policies to come into life as quickly as possible, we need to do what the law does not prohibit, not just do what is allowed,” Mr. Tuan stated.
At the conference, Mr. Phan Duc Hieu, Standing Member of the National Assembly’s Economic Committee, said that during the regular Government meeting in the third quarter, the Government discussed three growth scenarios in 2025, associated with three scenarios. executive. Accordingly, the Government decided to choose the highest growth scenario – the yearly target of 7%.
The annual inflation target was also raised from 4% to 4.5%, indicating a higher level of risk tolerance. The target budget deficit is expected to increase in the period after 2025 compared to the current target level of 3%.
“The new operating perspective shows that we accept higher risks for growth. From such perspectives, fiscal and monetary policies will be more expansionary,” said Mr. Nguyen Tu Anh, Director of Central Bank. Center for Information and Comments.