Doha is not saying goodbye to Hamas; Abbas is looking for approaches to Trump. Middle East Review

Doha denies that it has abandoned mediation between Israel and Hamas, but acknowledged that its efforts have not been successful at this stage. At the same time, Qatar denied reports of the closure of the Hamas Politburo office on its territory. Similar rumors have arisen several times over the past year, but have never been confirmed. However, it is clear that pressure on Hamas is increasing, especially against the backdrop of the upcoming change of presidential administration in Washington.

Author of the publication: Marianna Belenkaya

Qatar denies rumors

Ten days ago, during regular consultations on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, Qatar notified all interested parties that it would suspend its mediation efforts if Israel and Hamas did not reach an agreement. This was stated in a statement made on Saturday evening by Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari. He made it clear that since negotiations had reached a deadlock, Doha was keeping its promise.

At the same time, the diplomat denied reports that appeared the day before that Qatar had in principle abandoned its role as a mediator between Israel and Hamas. According to him, Doha will be “at the forefront” of negotiations as soon as the parties demonstrate the seriousness of their intentions to end the war and change the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip.

Majed al-Ansari also called publications about the closure of the Hamas Politburo in Doha inaccurate. He noted that the main task of the Hamas Qatar office is to be a channel of communication between interested parties, which, he said, had a positive effect during the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners that took place a year ago.

The next round of consultations on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip took place in Qatar at the end of October. It was attended by the head of the Mossad, David Barnea, and the director of the US CIA, William Burns. As the press service of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reported, the negotiations discussed a new plan that combines previous proposals and takes into account the current situation in the region. According to Axios, Burns offered a 28-day ceasefire and the release of eight Israeli hostages in exchange for dozens of Palestinian prisoners. However, Hamas again refused to discuss any plans unless they included a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip and a permanent ceasefire.

Against this background, at the end of last week, Israeli and Western media disseminated information, citing American sources, that Washington demanded that Doha close the Hamas Politburo office. It was alleged that Qatar agreed to the American request. This was also followed by publications about Doha’s refusal to play the role of mediator between Israel and Hamas. But, in the end, this once again turned out to be wishful thinking.

This is not the first time that statements about the suspension of the Doha mediation mission have been made. “Qatar is in the process of completely re-evaluating its role as a mediator because it has suffered serious damage,” Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abderrahman Al Thani said in April. At that time, Doha was very offended by Israel’s harsh statements against it, as well as by the fact that, from its point of view, the Israeli side did not show due flexibility in the negotiations. However, in general, the Qatari statements remained statements – when necessary, Doha continued to carry out its mediation functions.

All the words about revising or suspending its role are, on the one hand, an abdication of responsibility for the lack of success in the negotiations, and on the other, a certain blackmail of the United States, which considers it necessary for Qatar to participate in the negotiations as a party with influence on Hamas.

Israel views Doha not as an objective mediator, but as a party acting on the side of Hamas, but there are no alternatives. Qatar is too significant a player on the Middle East scene to be ignored. It is also not beneficial for Doha itself to refuse mediation and lose control over the key conflict in the region. This is also the reason for maintaining the work of the Hamas Politburo in the Qatari capital.

Over the past year, rumors about the closure of the Hamas office in Doha under US pressure have arisen repeatedly, but have never been confirmed. However, it is obvious that the Americans are really trying to push their Qatari partners to take this step. An official source in Hamas told the Saudi publication Al-Sharq al-Awsat that Qatar did not ask them to leave Doha, but informed the leaders of the movement that there was a corresponding request from the Americans. “This issue has been repeated several times (in the past), and it appears that this is some kind of American pressure to force the movement to concede in negotiations for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip,” a Hamas source said.

US increases pressure on Qatar

Washington’s pressure on Doha over the Hamas Politburo office reportedly intensified after the killing of six Israeli hostages in Gaza, including US citizen Hirsch Goldberg-Polin, at the end of August.

On Friday, Reuters reported that 14 US senators sent a request to the State Department demanding the freezing of the assets of Hamas officials living in Qatar and the extradition of some of them.

And this trend will intensify after the inauguration of Donald Trump. In the meantime, according to Kan, Doha is asking Israel not to liquidate Hamas leaders on its territory.

Al-Hayya – the new leader of Hamas?

At the same time, Al-Sharq al-Awsat points out that American pressure on Hamas came at a difficult time for the Islamic Resistance Movement. After the elimination of the head of the Hamas Politburo, Yahya Sinouar, in Gaza in mid-October, a new leader was never elected. Hamas is governed collectively.

It was assumed that this situation would most likely last until March 2025, when Hamas is scheduled to hold regular Politburo elections. However, this can happen earlier – at any time and without an official announcement.

So this week, Al-Sharq al-Awsat sources reported that Hamas plans to elect Khalil al-Hayya, who oversees the Gaza Strip, to the post of head of the Politburo. It is argued that this will happen as soon as the conditions for holding elections are created. For several years, al-Hayya served as Sinouar’s deputy while he led Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and then took his place once Sinouar was elected head of the Politburo. It is no coincidence that Khalil al-Hayya, immediately after the death of Sinuar, was called the main candidate to succeed him. Although surprises were not excluded. And in this regard, nothing has changed. As well as the understanding that at the moment al-Hayya is Hamas’s main negotiator. About three years ago, he contributed to the restoration of contacts between Hamas and Damascus, and after the start of the war, he participated in almost all negotiations in Cairo and Doha on a ceasefire and reconciliation with Fatah. The latter is now of fundamental importance for Hamas, since it can largely determine the future of Gaza.

Negotiations between Hamas and Fatah

Last week, another meeting of representatives of the two leading Palestinian forces – Hamas and Fatah – took place in Cairo. They discussed the formation of a joint committee to manage Gaza.

However, in the end, as in October, the parties were unable to reach an agreement.

The main disagreements relate to issues of security and finance, as well as the composition of the committee. The head of the Palestinian Authority and Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas did not come to Cairo, although he was expected. According to the Qatari website Al-Arabi al-Jadeed, the main problem is Abbas’s mistrust of Hamas.

However, negotiations are scheduled to continue in two weeks. However, this process may stop due to Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections. It is quite possible that Abbas will decide to wait to understand the position of the new American administration.

Abbas and Trump. Disappointments and hopes

During Trump’s previous presidential term, relations between him and Abbas did not work out. The Palestinian Authority broke contacts with Washington after the US moved its embassy to Jerusalem and recognized it as the undivided capital of Israel.

In turn, the Trump administration was unhappy with Ramallah’s refusal to discuss the “deal of the century” – the US President’s vision of a Palestinian-Israeli settlement. Trump has sharply cut financial aid to the Palestinians.

This time, however, Abbas is hoping to win Trump’s support, believing he is the only one who can influence Israel. In July, Abbas condemned the assassination attempt on Trump and sent him words of support. And at the end of last week, the first telephone conversation between Trump and Abbas since 2017 took place. The Palestinian News Agency (WAFA) reported that Abbas called Trump on Friday to congratulate him on his success in the US presidential election. Arab media, citing a knowledgeable Palestinian source, noted that the conversation was “warm” and Trump confirmed his previous statements about his intention to end the war in Gaza.