The Government now hesitates to raise the surcharges on the card dollar to compensate for the end of the PAIS tax

After evaluating the increase in card dollar surcharges, The Government made it clear that it is now analyzing the possibility of letting its price become cheaper when the PAIS tax expires on December 23. The economic team began to study this alternative after the drop in the MEP dollar, the fall in country risk and the purchases of reserves by the Central Bank in recent weeks.

Today, the tourist dollar is made up of 30% of the COUNTRY tax and a 30% perception of the Income tax. If the Government did not take any measure to compensate for the loss of the tax, the Earnings surcharge would remain, but the tourist dollar would fall from the current $1,635 to $1,328. So everything, In official offices they acknowledge that it is still “not defined”.

The main factor behind the change in focus would have been the 5% decline in the MEP in the last 10 days, during which it went from $1,153 to $1,096. The official argument is that, If it continues to fall, the financial dollar will continue to maintain a considerable gap with the card dollarwhich will stimulate the purchase of dollars for tourism to continue being made in the financial market, without affecting reserves of the Central Bank.

Today, the tourist dollar is 60% more expensive than the official dollar, but few can access the “savings” dollar given that the stocks prevent those who maintain subsidies from purchasing foreign currency at $1,022, among other limitations. As the Government eliminated this incompatibility for the purchase of MEP and CCL in July, tourism spending was channeled through the financial dollar. “What would seem strange to me is that the dollar card remains with the officer“said official sources.

Until a few days ago – as reported Clarion-, The Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank were studying an increase in card dollar payments to maintain that price as the most expensive of all and thus avoid losing reservations in the summer. The thing is that even with the validity of the PAIS tax, tourism caused a deficit in the first nine months of the year. US$3,939 millionthe highest since 2019.

“The dollar today is at the cheapest level in the last 20 years when compared to Brazil, Uruguay and Chile. That is why It is not ruled out that in the summer of 2025 the number of Argentine tourists will double from 600 thousand per month or approach the peak of 2 million Argentines in 2018.. Today a total of US$700 million goes to Tourism per month, and in the summer of 2018 it was US$1.7 billion in today’s dollars,” said a FMyA report.

Fernando Marull’s consultant pointed out, however, three reasons why he does not believe that this record of Argentine tourists will be reached next year. “1. Public employment (25% of the total) is still far from recovering its income. 2. The labor outlook continues to suggest greater caution in spending. 3. The average salary at CCL today is US$1,000, and in 2018 it was double US$1,900. (adjusted for US inflation)”, he explained.

In this context, Marull’s report highlighted that “unlike 2018 where the tourist dollar was used, Today 70% of Tourism is paid with the MEP dollar ($1120) and the Card is not used (which is provided by the BCRA)“. “Yes, there is an indirect offer from the BCRA, which is the Blend offer (US$ 60 million per day). The Government seems to suggest that it is committed to continuing with the Blend and the Tourist pays the MEP dollar ($1,120) instead of the Tourist dollar ($1,320, without PAIS of 30%)”, he pointed out.

This means that, although the dollar card does not demand reserves directly, Its lowering price could reinforce the continuity of the blend dollar, which provides foreign currency to the tourist dollar. Due to the blend, 80% of exports are settled in the exchange market and 20% in the financial dollar, which implies that the BCRA misses out on accumulating US$ 1.3 billion per month. The Government has already told exporters that it will maintain this scheme in 2025.

The other factor that encourages the idea of ​​making the dollar card cheaper is the decision to gradually abandon the trap. Minister Luis Caputo said that to lift it an additional injection of reserves is needed, an expectation that grows with the rapprochement with Donald Trump and the meeting that Milei will have with the IMF this Tuesday. Besides, The increase in surcharges generated surprise in the networks where it was read as a tax increase on the middle class.