The north magnetic pole is moving towards Russia

The magnetic north pole is the direction the compass needle points, not the geographical north pole, the fixed point where all lines of longitude intersect. According to geomagnetic researcher William Brown of the British Geological Survey (BGS), the key to the mysterious shift of the north magnetic pole lies deep inside the Earth, at a depth of about 3,200 km below the ground. The magnetic poles move due to the magnetic field, a feature originating from the movement of the outer core. The outer core is filled with molten iron, which convects and flows violently, creating a diverse and unpredictable magnetic field. While scientists can track these changes, predicting future movement remains challenging due to the chaotic nature of processes deep underground.

The journey of the north magnetic pole has shown significant changes in speed and direction in recent decades. After moving relatively steadily across the Canadian Arctic for decades, it entered the Arctic Ocean in the 1990s and began heading toward Siberia. The movement of this magnetic pole changes very diversely. According to Brown, the south magnetic pole is much more stable. The south magnetic pole moves very little, the distance it moves in a century is equivalent to the north magnetic pole in a decade. Their movement is tracked by the World Magnetic Field Model, a collaborative project between BGS and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Survey (NOAA).

BGS, along with many other organizations, has geomagnetic observatories around the world designed to accurately measure Earth’s magnetic field and determine its poles. They monitored the magnetic field to estimate how it changed and how the flow of matter in the outer core fluctuated, then made predictions for the next five years.

Tracking results are key to navigation systems around the world, from smartphone compasses to military submarines operating in the Arctic. But where the north magnetic pole reaches next remains a mystery. It could change course, moving faster or slower, at some point in the near future, according to Arnaud Chulliat, a geophysicist at the University of Colorado Boulder.

That uncertainty means the World Magnetic Model needs updating every five years. From the latest 2019 version, a new model will be announced in the coming months.